I keep track of every penny won and lost gambling. I decided to look at my results and see what conclusions can be drawn about playing with the Greene Friday night crowd.
I have played 16 times and won $1,170. I have 15 winning sessions that average $84.60 with one loss for $99. The overall average is $73.13. Sounds like easy money, right? I don’t think so. Let’s look further:
My six biggest scores occurred in 2000 and 2001, with an average score of $162.80. Yet my three worst outings occurred this year (-$99, +$12, +14).
My running average has decreased 13 straight games, with one 50 cent exception.
Clearly this is a trend, but what does it mean? I can think of several possible explanations:
1) The competition has gotten better; or they have improved at a greater rate than I have.
2) I have gotten worse.
3) The games called are different and give me less of an advantage.
4) Bad luck
5) They are on to me.
I will throw out number 2 because I don’t think it is common for ANYONE to actually get worse at poker if they play regularly. Perhaps someone can get rusty after a long break, but I don’t think I am worse. I will also throw out number 4 because the trend is so overwhelming. Last, I will throw out number 5. One day, we were “on” to Glazer and learned to just call his aggressive bets. But I don’t think there is anything about me that everyone is “on” to. I don’t think I have a bad tell or a glaring weakness that is being taken advantage of.
So it is a combination of 1 and 3, and I think that 1 is the answer.
With 3, I have to say that this definitely is a factor. We used to play games where I had a massive advantage like Hold’em or Anaconda. But now there is a lot of 7-27 where I don’t think I have any advantage at all. I would say my EV on Hold’em could be as much as $20 per hour, but at 7-27 it is $0.
But the biggest factor is people have gotten better. The two guys I used to win the most from were Romberger (sp?) and Nichol. Rom is gone and Nichol has improved by leaps and bounds. So while the average player is by no means ready for the WSOP, there is clearly a lack of people making massively wrong decisions.
This shouldn’t be any great surprise - there is a real survival of the fittest thing in poker games. If you don’t improve, you eventually lose too much and stop playing.
Since the primary reason I play in the game is for fun, I welcome the improved play. It adds to the fun for sure. However, I am going to need a new game on the side to replace the lost income. Anybody know Ted’s phone number?