
Saturday, January 24, 2004
Posted by Dr Fro 1:51 PM
The post from Andy Bloch is great stuff. The best advice is to study numbers in advance, but then just use them as rules of thumb at the table. Attempting to work through complex calculations on the spot has little benefit, and there is a big risk of miscalculating or allowing the calculation to keep your attention away from other important pieces of information (tells, etc)
I was quite surprised at the long list of otherwise looking junky hands that warrant a call if gettin 3:1 odds preflop to an allin raise, but the simulator at twodimes concurred.
One of his last points on the math in game theory is good for getting a fundamental understanding of the math supporting game theory. However, there is so much judgment/estimation involved in the inputs into those calculations, that the resulting answer may not be as helpful as you would hope. However, when Andy says, "So ask yourself, is my hand in the top X/(X+1) of the hands I might have in this situation?" he has a point. Not so much that you need to do the math, but if you are going to call, say 1/4 of the time in a situation where your only chance of winning is catching a bluff, you should do it with the top 1/4 of hands you would have in that situation. There is nothing worse than being right in assuming your opponent was bluffing, only to lose anyway. For example, you call with Qhigh and the bluffer wins with Khigh. This is why I don't call bluffs without at least Ahigh.

