Posted by Dr Fro 9:01 AM
John and I were bouncing around some thoughts on NL stragey before a tournament he played in last night. I reminded him of an old gem:

Let's say you turn a 4-flush (9 outs, or 20% chance of winning or 4:1). You have $500 in chips, the pot is $50, and your opponent has $100. You opponent bets $38 and all but tells you he has a pair. If you call, (and make the assumption that he will call your bet if you make the flush*) you are getting implied odds of $150:$38, which is is worse than 4:1. This calculation is simply pot ($50) + turn bet ($38) maximum river call due to stack size ($62) = $150 versus the $38 you are currently pondering. It is bad for you to call because his short stack keeps you from getting the implied odds you need.

The corollary to this is if you are that opponent, then it is a very smart move to bet >$37 to "protect" your hand.

Moral: When making decisions in NL poker, the stack size of all players needs to be factored into the process.


* note we made the assumption that the player w the made hand would call on the river, which isnt a bad assumption. Factoring in the possibility of the fold only makes a call to the $38 an even worse move. While intuitively obvious, it is a common mistake to do otherwise.

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