Posted by Dr Fro 4:06 PM
Starting hands – No Limit Holdem
There are several ways to evaluate starting hands. Below are the factors that I use to consider if I will play 2 cards:

1. Inherent value. This is the basis of most groupings of hands you find in books and it basically corresponds to the answer to the question of “How likely is this hand to be the best at the table on the river, based on all possible combinations of boards?” This is easy to understand. Inherent value increase when hands can win multiple ways (suited connectors, for instance)

2. Potential dominance. Dominance has been discussed here before, but a quick reminder may be due. If you hold KQ, that is just wonderful. Unless, of course, someone else holds AK. If this is the case, then you have 3 main outs (the three queens). If you held something that wasn’t “dominated” like 2-7, you would have 6 outs to beat AK that doesn’t pair up. Imagine that – ignoring straights and flushes, in this scenario, 2-7 is twice as good as KQ. This is important.

3. Deceptive value. Clearly 2-7 has more deceptive value than, say AK. For some reason, people are always expecting others to be holding AK. If a King is on the board, Hero will say “well, I got a King too, but I think you got a better kicker.” Same goes for when an Ace hits the board. Hero says, “Yeah, I got an Ace, too, but I know you’ve outkicked me.” What a dumbass. When he played A-7, wasn’t he hoping to hit an Ace? And when it hits, he folds?!? Anyway, when you have AK, you don’t fool anybody. Your preflop raise makes it even more obvious. The only way to be deceptive with high cards is to not bet them. But then you lose the inherent value in the “value bets” which defeats the purpose of playing high cards. So, my point is that crap hands like 2-7 have a lot of deceptive value. As a matter of fact, that is probably their primary value.

4. Betability. I just coined that word. I’ll define it as how possible it is to bet your hand. A-X suited has greater betability than K-X suited because when the flush comes, the King-high guy is scared of the Ace-high guy. The Ace-high guy knows he has the nuts and can bet without fear.

Sklansky and others have made their Group 1, Group 2, etc hands, but I want to quickly define my personal Group A, B, C and D. After reading this, you will know how I play No Limit Holdem. My secrets will be out and you can take all my money. You are welcome.

Group A – corresponds well with others’ Group 1. These hands are so freaking good, you would have to either be an idiot or be facing multiple re-raises to fold. They largely include AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs and a few others. The exact cutoff of Group 1 v Group 2 (or for my listing A v B) isn’t very important. The important things I have to say relate to groups B & C.

Group D – Group D is complete trash. It consists of hands that are neither suited nor connected nor even 1-spacers (ala 6-8s). You would only play Group D hands if you were in the blind or if you had so little respect for any other player that you knew that whater EV you give up pre-flop, you can make up by outplaying your opponent post-flop. Example, if playing Ted Hoth heads-up, I would take a proposition bet that I could take all of his money by calling every single unraised hand pre-flop by outplaying him post flop. However, there aren’t many Teds, so don’t play Group D hands.

Group B – These are very high cards that aren’t Group A. Any two cards 9 through A unsuited definitely fall in Group B. Let me skip Group B

Group C – These are medium cards that are suited and either connected or a 1-spacer. Some unsuited connectors

OK, lets compare Group B to C on my criteria above.


1. Inherent value. Group B may have slightly higher inherent value. Interestingly, though, if you use any poker calculator, you will see that the difference is quite slight heads up. In multiway action, the difference is even less slight. Advantage: Group B, barely.

2. Potential dominance. Group B’s biggest liability is potential dominance. Play 9-J often enough and you will hit a lot of pairs, two pairs, straights, and even trips only to LOSE. In limit poker, this isn’t as big of a deal, but in NL when you have the straight with a board of 2-3-T-Q-K, you will be tempted to call (or lead) with the ignorant end of the straight. What if the flop comes 9-J-A? Great, two pair. Bet it and get arse-raped by AJ. Plus, there are a lot of straights that can suck out on you. Group B hands will cost you a lot of money in NL poker. Group C hands are seldomly dominated. IF you hit the board, you are probably the only guy that did, so bet it up. The overcards will call, hoping to hit their 6-outer.

When you play 5-6s to 5 callers who have Group A and B hands, it is analogous to you needing Georgia Tech to win the NCAA pool. They all need Uconn, but it will come down to their tiebreaker to decide who wins if Uconn wins. Even though Georgia Tech had a 33% chance of winning, these guys are sharing 66% 5-way, or getting a 13% chance. Be different, take Georgia Tech.

3. Deceptive value. People expect people to hold high cards. Clearly Group C has more deceptive value than Group B

4. Betability. If the board helps your Group B hand, then it helped everyone. It is hard to bet it now unless you have the nuts. It is hard for a group C hand to hit without holding the nuts. I mean, you either got your straight or you didn’t. The only toughie is when you back into a baby flush.

When you add up the score on 1-4 above, Group C beats Group B. Add the bonus benefit of the fact that everyone thinks you are a maniac for playing “such God-awful trash” while they play such monsters as unsuited face cards. Let them laugh at you. You get the last laugh.

So, yes, I throw away a lot of hands that others call with. Nobody knows what I throw away, because they don’t get to see it . People do know what I call with, and they appear to not be strong cards. They are a lot stronger than you think.

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