Posted by Dr Fro 8:52 AM
We played at NL Junell’s last Wednesday. The contrast in styles of play of different people led me to think of poker in this way…What you win in the long run is roughly equal to:

+ $0, which is the net sum EV for all players assuming that they play without flaw, and ignoring “game theory” decisions such as bluffing
- $x, which are the stupid mistakes you make (say, calling a bet when you aren’t getting pot odds)
+ $y, which are the stupid mistakes others make
+ $z, which are the pots you successfully steal on bluffs
- $a, which are the bluff bets you make, which get called and lose
+ $b, which are the bluff bets others make, which you call and win
+ $c, which are the bluff bets others make, which you don’t call and lose the pot


It seems to me that bad players tend to have an EV that is mainly $0-$y. Quickly they either lose a lot of money and quit, or they graduate to an ok player. The ok player considers how each decision should be made independently, aims to minimize his errors and sit back and capitalize on other’s errors. The win $0 +$y. When you play this way, you can last a long time at a poker table. You win more often than you lose. You are basically a rock. Your game is well suited for limit poker, but NL will only bring you success if you avoid good players.

Good players graduate from this level and employ tactics to get $z and $b, while minimizing $a. Minimizing $a for the very good player is different than “minimizing” $x for the ok player. The ok player can get $x to = 0. However, the good player intentionally allows $a to grow, as long as $z grows at a greater rate.

There were 2 players that I don’t think ever bluffed and at least two others that seem to hardly ever employ it. This is missing an opportunity. And if anyone else at the table is taking advantage of these opportunities, your EV is taking a beating.

The ok player cannot overnight graduate to a good player by reading this and deciding they need to bluff more. Proper bluffing takes a lot of experience, and I am not going to re-hash all the bluffing pointers we know. I would like to point out one key point:

Bluffing is inherently different from other poker decisions. Most poker decisions can be evaluated independently, and you long run expected return is simply the sum of the EV’s of every decision. Each bluffing decision, however, affects the profitability of subsequent decisions.

You need to be willing to let players steal some pots. You may know they are bluffing, but you should let them have this pot. They will take another shot later with a bigger bluff and that is when you hit him over the head and tell him to stop stealing your pots. If they are going to get burned once and then get gun-shy, let it be for a very large pot.

You need to be willing to get caught stealing a few times for small change. Seriously, make a bluff with 35o even if you think the other guy will call. Let everyone see how stupid you are. Then, when you flop a full house and start betting big, you’ll get call(s) that will easily pay you back for the cheap advertisement.

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