Posted by Dr Fro 9:00 AM
From: Reader, brand new holdem player
To: Dr. Fro

I hope you enjoyed Belize.

I did not win on Saturday. After being low on chips all night, I had a few good hands and took the chip lead. Shortly thereafter, I suffered my worst beat to date.

I had pocket AH and 8H. The flop was 3H, 4H and 8S. Almost everyone folded and it was down to a 2 person game. I made modest bet, with high pair and a four flush. I don't remember the turn card, but it was no help and would not have made a higher pair. Still having the high pair and a four flush, I made another modest bet. The river comes 7H. I bet large, but hopefully not large enough to take the other player didn't call. I figure he would call if he also made a flush with any high card in the pocket. He raises me all in. I quickly called.

I give you one guess what his pocket cards were. I knew it was all that could beat me, but what are the odds of him making the straight flush. I figured he either had made a high flush or was trying to bluff me out of the hand.

Did I do something wrong or do you agree that it sounds like a bad beat?

From: Dr. Fro
To: Reader, brand new holdem player

5h6h

I wouldn't ever sweat that. If you play always assuming that nobody ever gets 4 of a kind or a straight flush, you will seldom regret that assumption. Conversely, the assumption will make you a lot of money fairly often.

There are 13 hearts - 3 on the board, 2 in your hand which leaves 8. Those 8 form 28 unique combinations (8*7, then divided by 2 since order is irrelevant). Of the 28, 27 are dead to you and only 1 beats you. Unless you feel the beating you take is 27 times what you would win if they are dead to you, betting up this hand is the right move.

:-)


From: Reader, brand new holdem player
To: Dr. Fro

That is comforting advice, but it doesn't heal the wounds.

Out of curiosity, why do you only include the hearts in your odds analysis? Is it because you would need to assume the other player has also made a flush or otherwise would not be betting the hand?


From: Dr. Fro
To: Reader, brand new holdem player

Kinda...

I first assume that they would only play if they had the hearts and then prove that you made the right move. The fact that they MAY call with other hands only helps my case. The possibility of them folding any flush at all is too remote to consider* and so even though it hurts my case, I consider it immaterial. Plus, since you were betting before the flush came, they may put you on top pair and call with two pair or three of a kind or a pocket pair higher than 8 or even a straight.

*note that this is less true in a big game with tough players, but I knew that the game in question was with a bunch of fish.

0 Comment(s):

Post a Comment