Monday, August 23, 2004


Posted by Dr Fro 8:15 AM
Morris has a great point. And it is because of his great points that JG is giving Morris and Junell blogger rights to make their own posts rather than be limited to the comments section. I will just add some numbers to Morris' point:

It the pot is $100, you have the full house, and you know your opponent has a draw to the nut flush. His odds are 2 to 1 against making the flush (35% chance of winning). If you make a pot-sized bet of $100, it is correct for him to call, because he will get his 2 to 1 (the 2 being your bet and the pot).

But this only considers pot odds, not implied odds. He should be willing to call an even larger bet, because if the flush does come, he will win more than 2 to 1, since there are more betting rounds. However, since many players don't correctly consider this, you are probably best off just giving him the pot odds at 35%. By the way, the exact amount is $116.29, not an exact pot sized bet of $100.

On the turn, the pot is now $100+$116+$116 and the flush still has not come. His odds have shrunk to 9 out of 46, so your next bet must be a smaller % of the pot than the last one. The exact amount is $106.71, but we'll call it $106 that gives him pot odds to call. Again, due to implied odds he should call a higher bet.

This all ignores 2 aspects: 1) his consideration that you might be bluffing & 2) his consideration that you may already hold the full house & thus he is drawing dead. To add these into the above calculations would make it to complex, but I would suggest that you not ignore these in real life.

So I go through all of this to give you this simple advice:
1) the correct bet on the flop is approximately = the pot
2) the correct bet on the turn is approximately the same as the flop

Forget the math and remember these rules and you will do fine.


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