Posted by Dr Fro 4:04 PM
The link from last night got me thinking. He made a good point that the "rule of thumb" to call a pot-sized bet on the flop with 9 outs is bad advice. It is good advice if you or your opponent is going all in. That is, since you won't have to make an additional call on the turn, the pot odds on the flop are the only consideration. While this is good advice, I think it is incomplete. What we need to know is, "What sized bet is ok to call?" See this chart below for your answer:
The third column is the one that bad players refer to when they incorrectly call a pot-sized bet. If you make the assumption that your opponent will bet the bejezzus out of the pot on the turn, then your only consideration in pot odds is the likelihood of turning your card (Column 1). Based on the above chart, a bet of $31 to a $100 pot is worth a call. Always. Can you call a bet > $31? Yup, if:
1. There is a possibility that you could get a free (or very cheap) river. However, this is so rare, that I would only factor this in if you are last to act and you know your opponent very well and have seen him check (or under bet) on the turn, or
2. You think that if you make a bet once you make your hand, you might get a call.
Items 1&2 involve a lot of speculation, so I would not raise the bar of what sized bet you may call significantly above $31.
If you find yourself on the turn needing a draw, then it becomes a bit simpler. Use column 2 and only consider the following for calling greater than $32:
- You think that if you make a bet once you make your hand, you might get a call.
The below chart is for open-ended straights: