Posted by Johnnymac 7:22 PM
I just started, and finished, a SnG at Pokerstars. Beginning on the fifth hand, I was dealt 4 pocket pairs in a row: QQ, 99, 55, and JJ.
On the first three, I won three small pots without seeing the flop. On the fourth hand, as I have lately had a very hard time with pocket Jacks, I considered folding, even though I was on the button and there were only three limpers in front of me. Similarly, since I had won three hands in a row without showing my cards, I also thought it was highly likely that at least one of the other players would choose to see all five streets with nothing but overcards, and thus I would either need a set of jacks or for there to be no overcards to be dealt on the board. Considering all of this, I decided to play it cautiously like I would a small pair and only limp and hope to flop a set. The small blind folded and the button simply checked.
The flop was K 2 J rainbow. Holy shit.
The big blind underbet the pot, everyone else folded, and I raised by the size of the pot. Based on his bet, I was certain he had a pience of the flop, probably a king, and that he was not going to let me win another pot uncontested. This, in turn, was a very profitable situation for me. I was loving it.
He reraised me. Beautiful! I figured him for AK or maybe even KJ and he not going anywhere. I was going to get all of his chips with this one.
Even though I had won 3 of the first seven hands of the tournament, he had won a larger pot right at the beginning and still had me covered by T100. I raised him all in.
He showed his cards: KK (!) Holy. Shit.
I obviously didn't catch my case jack and I was out of the tournament.
So, to run down:
The odds of being dealt three pocket pairs in a row: 0.02% The odds of being dealt four in a row: 0.001% The odds of being dealt a pocket pair of Jacks and then flopping a set: 0.01% The odds of another player being dealt a higher pair and also flopping a set: 0.00005% The odds of all of this happening on four hands in a row: 0.000000000001%