Posted by Dr Fro 3:03 PM
I always find this situation annoying:

You know there is a decent chance that he doesn't have that good of a hand. This is Party Poker. But it is really tempting. If he doesn't have an over pair (say he holds AK, AQ, 88) you are the favorite. I see people bet hands like that all the time. But I think the better long term play is to fold. If they were on a steal, I think it encourages them to try to steal again. Next time you call with a better hand. If they were betting AA, KK, etc, then it teaches them to slow down and the next time it is cheaper for you to see if you can flop trips.

You know that it is a bad play on their part. It is a -EV play. Anytime EV is given up by a player, an equaly and opposite amount of EV is picked up by the remaining players. It is hard to see in this situation how I am better off, but I think it must come down to the (rare) situation that somebody overbets the pot and you happen to be holding AA.

Thoughts?

3 Comment(s):

Posted by  Patrick, at 11:48 PM, May 07, 2005  

Well, you're in for $9 and you're holding nines. That's an omen, isn't it? I'd call.

Kidding...

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Posted by  Anonymous, at 1:08 AM, May 08, 2005  

Is it always a bad play on their part? Is it always negative EV?

Harrington on Holdem, p. 206, describes this as a squeeze play. It's pressure stems from not only the reraise, but that you have someone yet to act who smooth called your initial raise to begin with - the sandwich effect.

Let's assume the reraiser wasn't trapping with AA or KK. Let's assume he has gone all in with AK. Meaning there are only 3 AA hands and 3 KK hands possible. Let's also assume that two-thirds of the time he pulls this trick, everyone folds.

So, two thirds of the time, he wins $20 ($9 + $9 + blinds = fold equity). The other 1/3 the time, he gets called. Let's assume he gets called by AK, AA-TT. What is his EV when called?

v. 3 AA hands - 9:1 dog
v. 3 KK hands - 3:1 dog
v. 18 QQ-TT hands - 11:10 dog
v. 9 AK hands - Even money

So, 27/33 of the time when he gets called, his EV is about 0 (ie he will put $79 in and get $79 back, on average).

Vs 3 KK hands, his EV is -$36 (25% of $170 pot - $79), and vs 3 AA his EV is -$62 (10% of $170 pot - $79).

66 * 20 = 1320
27 * 0 = 0
3 * -36 = -108
3 * -62 = -186

For every 99 squeeze plays with AK under the assumptions above, he makes $1026, or $10.30 per hand. That's positive EV.

Clearly, the worse hand you try a squeeze play with, the lower your EV when called. But there has to be a considerable range of hands beyond AK where this play is profitable because of the huge fold equity. This is particularly true in tournaments, where if you call with 99 and misjudge it (or he draws out), you are gone.

In your specific hand, unless you had a great read on the guy, I'd lay down the nines. Most likely, you are either a small favorite (v overcards) or a big dog (v. overpair). While there is a chance he has an underpair, you can find better spots to get your money all in preflop.

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Posted by  Dr Fro, at 5:05 PM, May 08, 2005  

Thanks, binion.

First of all, you said, "Most likely, you are either a small favorite (v overcards) or a big dog (v. overpair). "

Right, so I folded.

Regarding everything in your analysis, I agree, but I think I need to clarify what I said when I said "-EV"...

Let's say you are faced with a range of options A-E with the following EVs:

A +10
B +5
C +3
D -2
E -5

You lose EV by opting for options B-E. If you choose option B, yes, you have positive expecation for the hand, but you gave up some EV for no good reason.

In relation to this particular hand, I think you clearly demonstrated that he can stand to profit on this move he made. And I agree. Not withstanding the need to vary your play, I believe there is a more profitable way to play this same hand. If I had AK in that postion, I probably would raise to about $30, which would have many effects, two of which are:

1) It is a better squeeze play. Now the guy with 99 is even more likely to fold. The $75 bet has him nearly all in anyway, but the $30 bet makes the re-raise scarier.

2) It gives Mr AK more room to run for the hills if an AA or KK re-raises him.

In summary, I agree that he stands to win more than he loses on that hand by playing the way he did, but unless he plays every hand trying to extract the maximum possible EV, he may have an overall -EV for his total portfolio of decisions.

Anyway, I appreciate your thoughts, esp the Harrington angle.

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