Posted by Dr Fro 8:51 PM
Life has really turned around since I got that chip back. I won $285 at Jackie's then $20 at Byron's house, about $50 at Party Poker and then tonight I won another $112 at Jackie's.

Unfortunately, I could have won a lot more. I had 66 and the turn showed 3376 w three diamonds. It was heads up with $90 in the pot. I checked my boat to Roy, who ALWAYS bets in that position. He bet $40. I thought forever about what to do. Assuming he was on a steal, I decided to wait to pop it on the river. Plus, maybe he had 1 diamond and would make his flush on the river and pay me off big time. What is the worst that could happen with a smooth call? The check raise would give my hand away.

River was a 3. SHEEEEEEEEET. I bet $40 into the $170 pot and he folds, showing me the nut flush. Any 6, 7 or pocket pair now makes a boat to beat his flush. It is weird to label a victory as a "bad beat" but this was. Had that 3 not come, it would have been payday - he had about $400 and I had him covered.

I was hoping he would catch up a little bit when I called. I still havent figured it out if I would play that same hand differently the next time.

4 Comment(s):

Posted by  Anonymous, at 8:53 AM, June 10, 2005  

Pot = $130, $40 to you with the best hand, and 3 diamonds on the board.

I think you can get in a raise here. If you make the minimum raise, and he's got any kind of hand, he's getting more than 5-to-1 on a call....he has to call. Even if you make it $60 more to him with a $100 bet, he's getting nearly 4-to-1. Is he the type to figure these numbers, or is he going on feel?

HINDSIGHT is 20/20: A raise here would have looked like a weak flush, or an attempt to push him off his hand, which he already had, so he would probably have re-raised with his flush and you'd have his entire stack. Easy to say the next day.

__________________________________________________

Posted by  Anonymous, at 9:01 AM, June 10, 2005  

shouldn't you be reading a book or practicing or something, Padilla? Come on, man. My one percent is counting on ya! 3,3,3,7,7 - unbelievable.

__________________________________________________

Posted by  Anonymous, at 9:59 AM, June 10, 2005  

I'd think you'd steer clear of any discussions about winning big pots with full houses.

But since you're here, maybe you can explain what the losing player in the hand was thinking?

My new license plate is 33377.

Incidentally, no word from the Rio yet on which day I start.
When does M Marx start? Anyone, anyone?

__________________________________________________

Posted by  Dr Fro, at 11:30 AM, June 10, 2005  

I hear you, Padilla, he definitely would have called a bet of $40 - $60.

My thought was that (and Bryon knows this player and will probably agree) Roy would take a shot at that pot on the river whether or not he made the flush. He is a very loose and aggressive player and he automatically bets a busted draw from the button.

So, I figured that while I was giving up an easy $40-$60 here, I was setting myself up for an enourmouse payday - no less than say $200 and probably $400. That is like a 10:1 payoff to me that get as long as that 3 doesnt come.*

* Actually there were two 3's, one 6 and three 7's that all would have had the same effect. So, six cards out of 46... 7.7:1 with a 10:1 payout. If you consider the $60 bet as a certain call, my payout is more like 400:60 or 6.7:1. Well, then I guess it was the wrong decision using those numbers.

If the above proves nothing else, it was a complex situation and a difficult decision.

Thanks for the input, sorry to ramble....
-cf

__________________________________________________

Post a Comment