Posted by Dr Fro 1:15 PM
Now there are 1,864 players left with an average stack of $29,925. Padilla is sitting in 25th place. Let's put that in perspective:

- If he finishes the tournament in 25th place, he will win $304,680 (and it should be pointed out that the 9 other IAG finalists will pocket a share of that.

- Even if he implodes and makes 560th place, he will gross $12,500. That would mean ending up in the top 30% of the field that advanced to Day 2. (70th percentile). He is currently in the top 1.3% (98.7th percentile)

- With 180 tables and only 24 other players having bigger stacks, he should have the biggest stack at his table, by far. So, that means that he can afford to go all-in and lose to a massive suckout and still have chips. In fact, if he is all-in each time against a mean stack of 30K, he could survive 3 big suckouts and still have the $10k he started with.

- Blinds are now $300-$600 ($75 Ante). That means each round cost $1,650. That will be brutal to the small stacks, but Padilla can afford to look at 100 hands and fold them all. One is dealt, on average a hand of KK or better (aka KK&AA) once every 88 hands. So, in theory, he could play only KK and AA. In theory.

- If he can just survive today (a mere 12 hour marathon), he should be in the money.

Dude.

1 Comment(s):

Posted by  Dr Fro, at 3:48 PM, July 10, 2005  

http://pokerblog.blogspot.com/satellite%20rules.pdf

Actually all participants get a share, not just finalists

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