Posted by Dr Fro 10:56 AM
In an eight handed game, there is a 0.1241% chance on any given hand that KK and AA are both dealt.
If you play 30 hands an hour for 4.5 hours, then there is a 16% chance of it happening that night.
There is a 2.09% chance of you being the guy with KK (and that proverbial stupid look on your face)
Since there is an 82% chance of the KK losing to AA, then on Sunday night, there was a 1.73% chance of me losing with KK to AA. Put another way, if we played every Sunday for a year, I might have that happen to me about once.

I did happen to me, and it brings me to a question I have often asked....Is there any situation where you fold KK pre-flop? It is hard to come up with a scenario, because it generally involves a lot or re-raising, at which point:
a) you are more likely to be pot committed (aka getting pot odds)
b) it is more likely (because it is more worthwhile) that someone is taking a stab at the pot.
Which leads me to conclude that I can't imagine folding KK preflop. If there is not a lot of re-raising and you are in the BB for $1 and the SB raises $500, it is still pretty easy to call. The bigger his be the more likely he is on a steal.

Another thought from last night is that if we played 135 hands, then I should expect a pocket pair 8 times. I got pockets 11 times that I remember (maybe 12). You make your set about 20% of the time, but I only made 1 set. I bet and everyone folded.

I only did one good thing last night. Joel hasn't read Caro's Book of Tells, so when his hand was shaking and when he acted very nonchalant about betting the river on a paired board, I decided to call. I was planning on re-raising all in with trips, Ace kicker, but I put him on the boat. It was worth the relatively small call to find out I was right. I would have lost a lot of money if Joel had read C'sBOT. Well, I did lose a lot of money last night ($100 to be exact), but I would have lost a lot more had I re-rasied. (And before you question the wisdom of re-raising a paired board, I will point out that Joel has a tendency to bet his 2-pair on a paired board.)

But the most interesting question of the night was "Is there a difference between "gay" and "very gay"? I vote "yes", and I believe the line is drawn somewhere between Will and Jack.

3 Comment(s):

Posted by  Johnnymac, at 2:21 PM, August 08, 2005  

That's silly.

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Posted by  Johnnymac, at 8:09 AM, August 09, 2005  

I was talking about Fro's preoccupation with silly gay people, because, obivously, "very gay" was enshrined at the pro football hall of fame this weekend! Scandalous!

You're silly too, you Silly Goose!

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Posted by  Heafy, at 7:38 PM, August 09, 2005  

I can't think of when I would fold KK pre-flop, it would have to be one hell of a read. However, I have folded QQ pre-flop before when there was two all-ins in front of me. I thought one of them would have AA or KK, or maybe out-draw me. Anyway, I folded and they showed 99 and 88 - flop was Q44. I've been haunted by Queens ever since.

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