Posted by Dr Fro 2:46 PM
Brian farts, charts, tarts and the Ace of Hearts

Everybody has different strengths and weaknesses in their game. Some people have mathematical minds and can quickly and accurately figure out odds. Some people can give off a misleading image. Others are great at reads. Some benefit from dicsipline and others from fearlessness.

My strength, without a doubt, is my ability to quickly figure out my opponent and adjust appropriately. I don't play a terribly conventional game, but 9 times out of 10, my apparently unconventional means are just the result of my adjusting the 'conventional move' for the opponent and situation.

For example, I previously wrote about making shallow (and therefore not meaningful) assessments of others. You could describe Mr. Pink as loose, but you would be more accurate to say that Mr. Pink calls all bets before the river but puts his tail between his legs on the river with anything short of the nuts. The two assessments differ not only in their depth but also in their ability to add to your EV. The more in depth, timely and accurate your assessment of your opponent, the more money you can make. Of course that assumes that you know what adjustments to make given any timely, deep and accurate assessment, but if you can't do that then you are probably already bankrupt.

So that is what I do well. Within an hour of playing with a new group, I am adjusting my play to players and making money. They don't catch up until hour 3 or 4 or 5. Or the next week.

This is all just great except that I have a major weakness here. I have so much confidence in my reading of others, the following happens without me noticing:
- they switch gears (or in the longer term, they simply improve)
- they recognize what adjustment I have made (e.g. always bet into Mr. Pink on the river) and form an appropriate defense.

You see, after winning two or three nights in a row, I gain a sense of invincibility and inevitably I take one in the pooper when the playing field changes without me noticing. Often I get beat down a few times before I wake up and realize what has happened.

I have demonstrated it graphically below:




You will notice that I not only lose my relative advantage, but I actually start losing money over time as my assessments become outdated and therefore costly.

We have been playing with the same group in Dallas for 1.5 yrs now. My experience has largely been the same as what you see above and what I have experienced with virtually every crowd I have ever joined. I initially won several times in a row. I got beat up a few times and I have now emerged bigger and badder (that is, the good kind of bad) than before. I won $120 last time (480 big blinds) and it was due to two things, both of which are represented in the timeline above:

- There was a new guy and my immediate assessment was good and won me a lot of money (can you say 'ma-ni-ac'?)
- The rest of the group was recurring and I have moved past the phase of outdated assessments.

There was one hand where I had AhTh and had top pair, ace kicker on the turn. Maniac bet big and I lost my appetite to challenge him there. Although I figured to be ahead, I also figured that I would be further ahead before the night was through. It happened twice in the next four hands that I was way ahead, check-raised him and won. Fun.

Strange the things you notice when the walls are closing in

And the walls are closing in on me today

So where, oh where, can I find someone, anyone?

'Cause there's no way outta here

Well, here is where I live and so I guess that means

The carrot's gonna dangle for at least another year

This is pretty funny. People will buy anyting.

Mark, I think you should buy this for Dabney.

Party Gaming is in the business page again.

I played PP the other day and gave into the temptation to play BJ. OMG that is addictive. On the poker screen, I just fold, fold, everything but very good hands on and all the while pass the time playing black jack on the other screen. My poker improved because I wasn't giving into the temptations of playing hands out of boredom.

Yes, I really did build a windmill for my backyard. My sister told me I have too much time on my hands.

John is right that I am headed out of town to find a cure for the Avian Flu. Well, half right. Starting Sunday, I'll be out of Dallas for all but about 23 hours for the next 3 weeks (DC, Prague, Budapest). Fortunately 1.5 of the 23 hours is the UT-KU game and I expect to be up by 28 when the plane leaves. I return to see the UT-A&M game. I predict a blowout, and almost all of it taking place in the air. I think we can win by 100 points with VY never leaving the pocket. You heard it here first.

Call me if you are going to Waco. We will be there, but we are headed back to Dallas in time for the Miami-VT game. That should be a good one.



So, I will pretty much be signed out for a while. I hope to see yall at the tournament in Houston. If you have suggestions or if you want to offer to help, pls comment below.

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