Posted by Dr Fro 10:41 AM
Today was a good day. I didn't even have to use my AK...

I told a little secret to ARH the other day, but I'll let the cat out of bag for the rest of you. I am no longer raising with AK. So, if we are heads-up and you are afraid of my holding AK but I didn't raise pre-flop....don't worry, I don't have it.

If AK wins X% of the time and loses Y% of the time, then I am certain that I single-handedly make up all instances of Y, leaving plenty of winning AK's to the rest of you.

It seems to me that there are 3 categories of hands you could be up against (hands that may call a pre-flop raise):

1. AA, KK
2. 22 - QQ
3. Ax

Group 1:
You are very, very dominated. Your only hope is a straight (which could still push) and flush or the very unlikely board of AAK against AK. In other words, you are completely screwed. Even worse, if you pair your A or K, you may lose your entire stack. Being agains Group 1 is an absolute nightmare scenario.

Group 2:
You are a slight underdog here. It is your classic "race" with a 50/50 chance, but that is misleading because neither of you are very likely to win much if one hits and the other does not.
But if you get a board that pairs your A or K while also giving a set to your opponent, you are going to lose a decent amount of money. Again, it is the unlikely straight or flush that can win you money, but only if your opponent also flops a set.

Group 3:
This is the only situation you like. But here is what I have experienced lately. If I find myself in a situation where I and my opponent pair up, but I have him outkicked, they are often savvy enough to approach with caution. They know they may have "kicker problems" and the fact that I raised pre-flop only makes their concern more acute. So, it seems to me that the only way to make money against a Group 3 hand is to disguise your hand pre-flop (i.e. not raise). In fact, on Party Poker a week ago, I lost $5o with AQ because I kept betting my pair-of-aces-queen-kicker into Mr. AK. He didn't raise pre-flop. If he had, I would have been less bold.

So what do the experts say? Well, I consulted Mr. Harrington and Mr. Doyle, and they suggest the folllowing:

Dan Harrington (misc pages of Vol I), with some liberties:
- If nobody has entered the pot, raise 75-85% of the time.
- Raise if there is a caller
- Raise if it has already been raised

OK, Action Dan favors raising

Doyle Brunson (starting on p. 471 of S/S), with some liberties:
- He preferes AK over even AA and KK in that it is easier to throw away when you miss
- He raises in most instances, but he does not re-raise a single raisers, as he does not want to be heads-up; he wants multiple callers. After all, it is a drawing hand.

Summary
Obviously the experts don't agree with me. And that is the reason why my current boycott on raising with AK probably won't last very long. But, it feels like the right thing to do right now. In limit poker, there is usually 1 right and 1 wrong answer to every question. NL strategy is much harder to pin down. This is why you see several successful players with very diffrerent strategies (Gus Hanson comes to mind). So, for the next few months, this will be a little unconventional wrinkle in my strategy. Thought you'd like to know.

3 Comment(s):

Posted by  Johnnymac, at 11:28 PM, January 14, 2006  

Welcome to the club. I will only raise with it when I am first to enter the pot (but then that's what I try to do everytime I am first with any hand). I very rarely ever come over the top with it, and I certainly won't call a reraise with it in any but the most exceptional of circumstances. This philosophy kind of evolved from my "Ace Queen test" and practical experience with AJ and AT.

And the cool thing is, once I started being less enthralled with AK, I started noticing just how many players will overplay it and then get stuck in a bad situation versus a board like QJ9 or A77 and two other players ramming and jamming along after the flop. The only thing AK has going for it is that if it connects with the flop it's always top pair... but JT makes more straights and quite often is good enough for top pair itself. In summary, AK is not as strong of a hand as many people want to play it as.

Good post.

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Posted by  Junelli, at 12:11 AM, January 15, 2006  

There's no better feeling than limping in with AK and getting away from it when you miss the flop. I pat myself on the back if I can get out of the hand for the price of the BB.

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Posted by  Padilla, at 12:36 PM, January 16, 2006  

Remember, those Harrington books are tourney scenario's only.

AK in cash-limit scenario:
You have to be careful how you play AK into a flop of A-J-8. Not because of the straight draws, but because of the 5 other players in the pot. Most of the time...if an ace flops and I'm early, I'll bet the flop and turn, but check-call the river if I don't improve or if the board gets worse. I don't like giving bets away, but so many any-ace players stick it out to see if their kicker will come. If it does, they wait for the river to raise since I've bet the flop and turn for them. They normally check/fold to a river bet if the kicker misses, so I save an extra bet on the river that won't get called anyway.

Occasionally, I have the table set-up to think I don't even have an ace (by checking the river) and I'll call to find my opponent red-faced with 2nd pair.

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