Posted by Dr Fro 1:32 PM
From the mailbag:

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

From: Gay Cowboy
To: Dr. fro
Subject: Poker on tv last night

Here's the situation (and why I was confused)...

Negreanu is dealt ATo. Elezra is dealt 86o. I can't remember the original bets but the table folds around and these guys are heads-up to the flop.

Flop is 6810 rainbow. Elezra bets $15k -- a pretty high for the game. Negreanu talks out loud for a long time and finally raises to $100k. Elezra calls to go all in immediately.

Now here's what I found confusing:

Negreanu: "What do you have?"
Elezra: "Two pair - 8s & 6s"
Negreanu: "Do you want to go twice."
Elezra: "Sure"
Negreanu: "I've got a 10 and an A."

What's confusing to me is that Negreanu heard what Elezra had and then offered to "roll it twice" without telling Elezra what he had. Why would Elezra ever accept that proposal? I suspect that most of the time when its "rolled twice", the players probably think they are pretty much in a race (sort of splitting the pot). Seems really odd that Elezra would have accepted the proposal since he had him dominated and that now gave Negreanu many more chances to get outs to win half the pot.

As it happened:
the first turn and river were rags -- Elezra wins the pot.
the second turn is an A (Negreanu has 2 pair), but the river is an 8 and Elezra takes it with a full house.
It worked out, but it still seemed odd.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I think the offer and acceptance on rolling it twice makes sense, as even if you are way ahead, you are still way ahead for each "roll" In other words, your decision on whether or not to roll it twice is not a function of where you are (ahead vs behind). It gives you the roughly the same* EV, although a smaller std deviation.

*I say roughly the same to account for the slight difference in a "with replacement" and "without replacement calculation". A minor point.

0 Comment(s):

Post a Comment