Posted by Dr Fro 10:15 AM
I have been quite busy running my basketball pool, and that has kept me away from the poker table and this blog. On the radio today they made the point that hearing somebody talk about "their bracket" is as uninteresting as their bad beat stories and hearing about their fantasy football team, and I thought of that oft made point here. Personally, I find "bracket stories" more tolerable, perhaps because they are always very short (e.g. "dude, that Kansas game killed my bracket")

But some bad beat stories actually are interesting, including the one in a recent post on HornFans. The situation involves folding AA pre-flop. I would never fold AA pre-flop in a cash game. I would rarely fold AA in a tournament, but I do agree with the sentiment at the bottom of the post that there are situations where folding AA is the right move:

I know, it would be an unbelievable feeling to fold AA preflop, and there are VERY few scenarios where it would be correct, almost all of which concern satellite tourneys where everyone is playign for the same prize. For example in Bill's tourney there is no advantage to finishing 1st instead of 2nd. Same prize. Here is one scenario where it would CERTAINLY be correct. You have 1 million chips in teh BB. Blinds are 2000/4000. Five players left, two get seats. The otehr 4 stacks are 10000, 12000, 2000, and 1.5 million. If the guy with 1.5 million goes allin, you MUST fold AA. Why? The chances of you getting a seat if you fold are 99% plus. If you call, they are around 80%. You have to figure what your chances of winning a seat are if you fold, compared to (what they are if you call and win * your chance of winning the allin if you call). This doesn't apply to most any other tourney, and certainly not to cash games. But in satellites, you should sometimes fold AA in the endgame. One reason I love satellites is most people are clueless about proper strategy. Can't tell you how many times I've been in and there are 25 people left, 22 seats, and the 4th and 7th chipstacks go allin against each other. LMAO.

Doubling up has a marginal effect on your chances of winning the prize, but getting eliminated has an absolute effect. So why chance it?

4 Comment(s):

Posted by  Padilla, at 8:51 PM, March 19, 2006  

With all the different personalities reading this blog (both of us), we could all come up with a perfect scenario to fold AA. The real test is when it's presented to you......and it means something. (maybe you saw my response coming, maybe not)

You're suggesting a 5-to-go satellite scenario with 2 places paying. That's fine, but it depends on more than that. A lot of people simply see it as the bubble approaching in any tourney when you get your money back for being in the money. It's all relative. (I recently busted out 23rd of a $109 buy-in where 20 places paid, and I dare say I could have struggled to the money...not with AA)

My guess is that Dr. Fro doesn't agree with my decision in last year's World Series of Poker.

I had 60K in front of me and am 2nd to act (maybe 1st, maybe 3rd). The big blind is in the neighborhood of 2000-3000, while the standard pre-flop raise is no less than 7000. There are 8 or 9 players at the table and I dare say I'm the short stack (at least 6 outchip me, up to 250-300K).

We are on the bubble. Next person out gets $0.00, while the person after that gets $12,500. I am dealt AA and go all-in.

And I quote "So why chance it?" asks the good Doctor.

--Sometimes dead is better.
--I would rather have loved and lost, than to never have loved at all.
--Don't be such a puss. (to myself, not you...)

At this point, I still wanted to double up. I still wanted to have a shot at advancing past the current day. I still wanted to live...and for that, I was willing to die.

As most of you know, nobody called and I mucked my cards without showing.

Stressful to be called...yes, would my wife still remind me of it if someone called with J-10 and hit 2 pair...absolutely, but I could always fall back on "if I'm not all-in with that........??"

Doubling up had a marginal chance on me winning any more than a few thousand more (versus 0 or 12,500), so I'm not sure where the good Doctor stands on my decision.

p.s. I sleep fine.

p.s.s. I challenge anyone else to fold AA when the first one into a pot...which I submit I would still do with 2 callers, based on the fold equity involved.

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Posted by  Dr Fro, at 9:10 PM, March 19, 2006  

"My guess is that Dr. Fro doesn't agree with my decision in last year's World Series of Poker."

You guessed wrong.

1) You bet with AA, not called with AA. There are more bubble scenarios where I will bet with AA than call with AA.
2) Doubling up could have had a very large impact on your winnings. In the scenario I cited, there was no difference between 1st and 2nd place payouts, so there was truly no value to trying to move up.

In fact, I was telling a friend just a few nights ago how awesome your bet with AA on the bubble was.

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Posted by  TheTart, at 3:09 PM, March 20, 2006  

OK guys... take a poker/basketball break!

I just HAPPENED on this blog & am big time confused, natch! What does, we are on the bubble mean? I hope this is a good thing.

OK, I fold em! I give... sheesh, its lots easier being a chic... onward on the BUBBLE... I hope you stay on top or fall off!

Smooch,
The Tart

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Posted by  Padilla, at 7:33 PM, March 20, 2006  

Being "on the bubble" refers to a particular point in time during a tournament.
If you get eliminated "on the bubble", you are the last person to get knocked out of a tournament that receives absolutely nothing.

5 player tournament, 1 prize, 2nd place is the bubble.

5219 player tournament, 560 prizes, #561 is the bubble.

Snootchie Bootchies

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