Posted by Junelli 10:26 AM
Would you have insured it?

Last night I played $5-$5 PL. I was in the small blind with 3s5s. Several people limp and a late position player makes it $20 to go. I smooth call the $20, and the Big Blind (the tightest player I've ever played against) reraises it $50 more. Two players call the $50 raise, and I am looking at a pot of $230 or so with $50 to me. I decide to call and see if I can catch a lucky flop. I know my cards are live, and I feel pretty confident that the rock on my left has a big pair, AA or KK.

The pot is $280 before the flop.

The flop is 478 all spade. I've flopped a flush with a gutshot to a straight flush.

The BB leads out for $100. Everyone folds to me and I move all-in for $220.

He calls with AA, one spade. He has 6 outs twice (the 6 of spades gives me a straight flush). I decide to try and peel one off because the insurance on 12 outs is 2:1. In other words I could lock up $450 but would have to give up $225.

If I peel one off the outs are reduced to 6 (4:1) and I can lock up about $600 to $150.

I decide to peel one off and try to dodge a spade. After all, I had 2 in my hand, there was one in the other guys hand, and the board was entirely spades. Surely there can't be another spade coming off.

I was wrong. The next card is the Jack of spades and the BB with AA wins the hand.

Obviously hindsight is 20-20, but would you have insured it? Would you have taken one card insurance?

3 Comment(s):

Posted by  Dr Fro, at 11:58 AM, May 12, 2006  

It has been a while since I have played somewhere that it is an option. I usually only insure on the river and typically only if the pot is enourmous (say, north of $1k)

Applying those rules, your situation was marginal.

The amount in my pocket would also affect my decision. With deep pockets, there is less value to insurance. That is, I would be more likely to insure if losing meant going home.

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Posted by  Junelli, at 1:18 PM, May 12, 2006  

Good points (except it doesn't make sense to "insure on the river") after all the cards are out.

Applying your rules, I should definitely have taken the insurance. The pot wasn't over $1k, my pockets are far from deep, and losing meant I had to go home.

:)

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Posted by  Dr Fro, at 2:24 PM, May 12, 2006  

i meant to insure against the river (i.e. insure on the turn)

f-ing lawyer...

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