Posted by Johnnymac 8:33 AM
I changed my mind about one of my Snyder Pool picks this week - instead of going with the Saints over Atlanta, I am switching to another home dog.

SAN FRANCISCO +6.5 vs Philadelphia
With how well SF is playing right now and how many points they're scoring, I like the +6.5 at home. If it were 7 or more I would REALLY like it, but I'll still take the points here. The over/under is 42, which works out to a final score of roughly 24-17. The 49ers have averaged 23.5 points so far this year, the Eagles are averaging 24 points (actually they've scored that exact amount in both games so far) and have given up an average of 20 (the low being 10 to the Texans and you know how I feel about them). For this spread to hold, the Eagles will need to play better defense than usual against a very good offense and the very good offense will need to play its worst game of the year. I just don't see that.

The numbers are pretty convincing, but then when you factor in the Niners getting points at home, the 6 hour trip for the Eagles, and the loss of Jevon Kearse and how well the SF offense (Smith, Bryant, Gore) is playing right now, it's overwhelmingly convincing. I rarely bet the total in football, but I would probably take San Francisco and the overs here, it's all so convincing.

(Now watch the Eagles go win 10-3 or something like that.)

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