Posted by Johnnymac 7:33 PM
Round three of football picks. My God, I hope I can do better this week than last. I got cocky and loaded up on the pros and the football Gods punished me. I should have kept my head and remembered that it's much much harder to pick the pros every week because the competition is simply more equal. If I had done this earlier today, I probably would have gone with SOUTH CAROLINA +14 and TCU -6 in tonight's games. As of this writing the Gamecocks are hanging with Auburn and BYU has beaten the hell out of TCU. Call me Mr Coin Flip.

OK, here we go.

Actual betting results so far this year:

College betting: 5-2-1
College pickem pool: 35-22-2
Pro betting: 4-5
Pro pickem ("Snyder") pool: 22-24; money picks: 5-10



This week's picks:


College:

LSU -33 vs Mississippi State
A huge number, yes, but LSU is at home, playing with a little redass, and except for last week against the #3 team in the country, an offensive machine. I cannot see LSU struggling one bit against these guys and scoring less than 45 points.

Purdue +14 at NOTRE DAME
I say it's a shootout that's not decided until the fourth quarter or maybe even overtime, so logically, 14 points is a nice fat cushion.

IOWA +7 vs Ohio State
I've ridden the tOSU wagon far enough. I think they probably win by a field goal here. Except against Texas (gulp), I have not been that impressed with Ohio State with the barely-covers two weeks in a row. I'll take the home dog in this one.

MISSOURI -14 vs Colorado
Missouri has scored a lot of points this year and Colorado simply cannot. About the only thing the Buffaloes have going for them is a decent defense, but I think their success in the near-upset last week at Georgia was more due to Georgia taking them lightly than due to anything Colorado did in that game.

Virginia -6 at DUKE
This is a special pick for Mrs Johnnymac and our good buddy Canonico as both are alums of the respective schools. Virginia has no offense, but does have a pretty good defense. Against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, this was a problem, but Duke is terrible on both sides of the ball. I cannot see Duke keeping this closer than a touchdown, so I think the 6 points is value.


Other teams I like this week (but didn't pick for this post): VIRGINIA TECH, Houston (I just couldn't bring myself to actually make the pick), TEXAS A&M, Wyoming, Troy, Nevada, UCLA

Pro:
(These games are EXTREMELY tough this week, not one layup in the bunch and I am picking 5 road teams. What the hell is wrong with me?)

New Orleans +7.5 at CAROLINA
I am beginning to believe in the Saints, even if there are internet rumors about just how "competitive" Monday Night's game was. Steve Smith might be a factor here, but the Saints have plenty of weapons, too. Not to mention that the Saints are also undefeated against the spread so far this year.

Miami -3.5 at HOUSTON
Why can't Miami play a good team this week so I don't have to renege on my Daunte Culpepper swearoff less than a week after it was made?

Cleveland -3 at OAKLAND
This one is tough, too, but the Raiders are a bottomless pit of mediocre football right now and probably will remain that way for the rest of the year. Bill Simmons says to always bet against the Raiders as long as Art Shell is the head coach, and I can't think of any reason not to.

Dallas -10 at TENNESSEE
Vince Young might start and even if he doesn't, he'll play a lot and the Cowboys will feast on him. Not to mention that after the T.O. fiasco yesterday I wouldn't be surprised to see him score 3 TD's and have 150 yards all by himself along with 2-3 end zone pantomimes of drug-related offenses.

Jacksonville -3 at WASHINGTON
This is a good example of linesmakers overvaluing both team's previous week's performances. Washington rolled up the points against Houston and Jacksonville lost to Indianapolis. I like the Jags, although I am nervous about them being on the road.

ESPN Suicide Pick: Dallas
Other teams I like this week (but didn't pick for this post): Minnesota, Detroit, CINCINNATI

0 Comment(s):

Post a Comment