Posted by Johnnymac 7:02 AM
Round three football wrapup (updated for Monday night).

This week was an improvement over last week, but all I managed to do was get back to 50%. One thing about this week is that I was reminded again just how uncannily accurate these guys are every week, even for obscure college conferences and teams that it would seem no one would know about. Even more amazing this week was how accurate many of the bettors are at finding value.

For instance, the spread in the LSU-Miss State game started at 31.5 early last week and there was so much action on LSU that the line kept moving and eventually ended up at 33 by kickoff. The final differential was 32.

Similarly, the Missouri-Colorado started at 14 and ended up at 16. The final differential was 15! Amazing.

And for the record, I always pick against what I consider to be the best available number on this page at the time I make my picks. Sometimes that doesn't jive with where the final number is, but just like in a real Las Vegas sports book, all that matters is what the line is at the time you make your bet.

OK, here we go.

This weeks actual wagers:


TEXAS A&M (PK) vs Texas Tech LOSE -$5
Texas Tech -2.5 at TEXAS A&M WIN $10

My strategy here was that I saw it being a close game and figured it would be a 1 or 2 point game. An Aggy coworker of mine offered to give me A&M straight up, so I jumped at that bet because I knew would be able to find me some other Aggy who would be willing to bet with his balls and (stupidly) give points to Tech and thus I would have a chance at the legendary "middle" bet that usually gets arbitraged out in Vegas or doesn't even exist as much anymore because the linesmakers have gotten so good. Of course, to be a true middle bet, one should bet equal amounts on both sides and be hedged perfectly in something similar to the shape of a "butterfly" options trade with only upside and no downside. In reality, I wanted a little extra action on Tech and thus I took the extra $5.

New Orleans +7.5 at CAROLINA WIN $10

I ran the full gamut of football gambling emotions in this one - easy cover late in the game and I feel good. Panthers then get a trash 40 yard touchdown run from DeShaun Foster (who was on my fantasy bench, btw) and all of a sudden I am pissed and getting hopeless. Then somehow, some way, Drew Brees find Marques Colston over the middle for a 76 yard TD to make up and recover the bet. All within a span of about 5 minutes. I shotgunned a celebratory beer after that one.

(And similarly, although I didn't have any money on it and it only mattered to my overall Snyder Pool picks, I was SCREAMING at the TV when St Louis scored late to go up by 5 and then lined up to go for 2... when the spread was 5.5! I know it was the right decision in the game, but man there were a lot of relieved gamblers when Ike Bruce came down with the ball in the end zone. Whew.)

Pickem pool results:

Yahoo College Pickem: 7-10-1
(This one is fast slipping away)

Snyder Pool: 8-6; money picks 3-2


College: (2-2-1 this week, 10-3-2 overall)

LSU -33 vs Mississippi State INCORRECT
One problem with giving the big number is that at some point your coach decides enough is enough and takes his foot off of the gas. This is what happened in the second half of this game. It's an annoying risk, but not so bad that it would change my betting philosophy about big college spreads.

Purdue +14 at NOTRE DAME PUSH
Notre Dame played better than I expected them to. They got up by 14 early and kept it up through the rest of the game. I was lucky not to lose this one, because Purdue never really challenged in this game.

IOWA +7 vs Ohio State INCORRECT
Ditto on this one. It wasn't even close... and did you SEE that touchdown by the great bald hope, Anthony Gonzalez? After the Texas game I wasn't that willing to give him much respect since I thought he was more a beneficiary of the Longhorns focus on Ginn, but after seeing that play I might have to reconsider.

MISSOURI -14 vs Colorado CORRECT
Anyone who gave the 16 points on Saturday was disappointed but it was 14 when I picked on Thursday, so it's a win. I thought it would be more like 25 or 28 than just 15, though, so Colorado played better than my original expectations.

Virginia -6 at DUKE CORRECT
Last week I said, "I think the 6 points is value." Um, yeah, I think 37-0 counts as value.

As an aside, how about those Houston Cougars? I thought they would challenge and probably stay within the 17 point spread, and, like a lot of people, I was a little bit scared to take even the 17 points because of a possible "obvious" Hurricane blowout that I kind of felt in my gut... but I didn't think that the Cougars might just win the game! Hell, they were winning at halftime and Miami needed a late 3rd quarter touchdown and a little help from the Coogs in the 4th quarter just to hang on and win by one point. Nice job, UH.

Pro: (3-2 this week, 5-10 overall)

New Orleans +7.5 at CAROLINA CORRECT
See my comment above. Whew.

Miami -3.5 at HOUSTON INCORRECT
I am done picking these guys for a very long time.

Cleveland -3 at OAKLAND CORRECT
Oh, I was worried about the Browns for a while, but Art Shell eventually played to form.

Dallas -10 at TENNESSEE CORRECT
Vince didn't cause Tennessee to lose this game and he played very well in his first NFL start, even showing some flashes of the stuff he did last year at Texas. No, Tennessee lost this game because their defense is terrible. That Miami couldn't do this against the same Titans defense last week says a lot about Miami.

Jacksonville -3 at WASHINGTON INCORRECT
Is Washington waking up? I thought the Jags would eventually pull away but Washington stayed close and got an incredible catch and run from Santana Moss in overtime. Portis ran well, too. They have the skill players, and now it seems like the O-line is starting to play better, too.

Let me also make an aside that the Patriots' win over Cincinnati is pretty much exactly the kind of "We're still good, now sit down and STFU" game I expected from Belichick last week against Denver.


That's it. Let's hope the college pickem gets moving next week or I'll have no chance at getting any money back.

1 Comment(s):

Posted by  Dr Fro, at 8:36 AM, October 04, 2006  

for a second there, i thought you were going to throw "contango" or "backwardization" into the Tech/A&M analysis.

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