Posted by Johnnymac 7:51 AM
Thoughts on the Sugar Bowl (and the bowl season in general)



The best bowl season ever just keeps on rolling: Aggy gets exposed in the best way possible, the Horns actually sniff out a trick play and win the game, OU gets embarassed on national TV in a great game, and the Domers get killed once again. My God, I knew he was big and strong, but that was most time I have ever devoted to watching Jamarcus Russell and I am impressed. He is built like the proverbial tank, right down to the cannon. Some of the throws he made last night - for instance, the 20 yard deep outs to the far side of the field with 2 guys hanging on his back - were just incredible.

A lot of people keep saying that Notre Dame is playing over their heads and that's why they keep getting killed in bowl games. I think that's exactly right: they're like a rich poker player who insists on playing in the biggest game he can afford, but who regularly gets his ass kicked because he's not up to the competition. Just like our fictional poker player might be able to regularly beat the $4-8 game, Notre Dame would have a lot more bowl wins if they would swallow their pride and go play in an Alamo Bowl or Liberty Bowl or whatever, but their ego and the whole, "We're Notre Dame" attitude won't let them and thus you end up having to go back to the 1993 Cotton Bowl to find their last postseason win (think Lou Holtz and Jerome Bettis). They schedule a lot of patsy opponents every year, get destroyed by the 1-2 good teams they do play, and ride their reputation to an undeserved ranking and a BCS invitation. This has now happened two years in a row and is likely to happen next year, too: they have replaced North Carolina with Duke.

I laid 8.5 points last night betting on LSU and it was the easiest $100 I made all year. Counting last night's game, I am +$240 on the bowls this year with 4 bets: Cal, Auburn, UH (a teeny $10 bet that was a big disappointment), and LSU. For the season I am 32-16-2 for $589 in college games and 18-18-1 for $31 in the pros. This seems to confirm my hypothesis that I am better picking the colleges than the pros, but it might also mean that I need to be a little more disciplined and pay more attention to the details when I make my pro picks because the matchups are a lot more even and the lines more accurate - there are never any gimmees in the pros like the game last night. That will be my goal for next year.

And if you are still reading this and care about my opinion on the BCS Championship game next Monday, here it is: I wasn't completely sold on tOSU this year, but the only team that I think could have challenged them, USC, was unable to maintain enough focus to beat Oregon State or UCLA. Thus Florida, another team I wasn't completely sold on, and who backed into the Championship game, will get a shot. I think tOSU wins a completely uninspiring championship by default. As far as betting goes, since I'm not a huge believer in either team, I've been planning on staying away but the line is currently tOSU -7 and seems to be pushing -7.5. I think that hook is key and I might go small on it just for fun if I can get the extra half point.

2 Comment(s):

Posted by  Anonymous, at 4:48 PM, January 04, 2007  

Sugar Bowl? Don't you mean the Commercials Bowl.

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Posted by  Johnnymac, at 12:11 PM, January 05, 2007  

Touche.

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