Posted by Johnnymac 7:52 AM
Last week's football picks are up; this week's are below.

Since I had two real money wagers yesterday on both the Packers and the Cowboys and hit them both, I have those included in my picks. I need every edge I can get to hold on to second place as I've been sucking so much lately.

As far as my football season to this point, here's an update. You might remember that last year I did very well with the college games and not so well on the pros and going into this year I was thinking about betting much less on the pros and more on the colleges. "Bet what you're good at" so to speak. Well, that's out the window this year. Counting the two games yesterday my season results are:

COLLEGE: 30-32-2 48% -$60 (Z = -0.13)

PRO: 14-13-2 52% +$75 (Z = 0)

TOTAL: 44-45-4 49% +$15 (Z = 0)

If you paid attention in stats class, you would know that the Z-value is just a quantification showing that you can't infer a damn thing from results that are so close to 50% - even if you didn't pay attention you should know that - so the lesson here is that I haven't done any better this season than pure chance. To put it another way, for 13 weeks I have bet $3,290 on 93 different wagers and made $15 for a profit margin of 0.4%. The economist in me says that I should go find a more productive way to spend my time.

The important point I am trying to make here is that only about 8-10 of those 93 wagers were made with any juice, the rest were made directly with other bettors, mostly other guys at work. Had I been paying juice, there is no doubt that I would be down a significant amount of money - around $150 by rough calculation - even with my break even record. There is a lesson here about beating the house in Vegas and an analogous lesson about beating the rake in poker, but I don't feel like trying to flesh it out right now, I think I would rather have another cup of coffee and keep watching Fox Business before I go outside and put up Christmas lights.

On to the picks.


Dr Fro (33-22 season)

TEXAS -5.5 v Texas A&M
Oklahoma State +14.5 v OKLAHOMA
Missouri +2.0 v KANSAS
Tennessee +2.5 v KENTUCKY
UConn +17.5 v WEST VIRGINIA


Johnnymac (25-28-2 season)

VANDERBILT -1 v Wake Forest
WEST VIRGINIA -17.5 v Connecticut
STANFORD -3.5 v Notre Dame
DALLAS -14 v NY Jets
Green Bay -3 v DETROIT


Padilla (21-28-6 season)

DALLAS -14 v NY Jets
Boise St. +4 v HAWAII
BOSTON COLLEGE -14.5 v Miami
TEXAS -5.5 v Texas A&M
CENTRAL FLORIDA -18 v UTEP

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