Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Posted by Dr Fro 3:00 PM
From the Mailbox, with my comments in red.
From: D. McNabb
Sent: Tuesday, July 22, 2008 8:47 AM
To: Dr. Fro
Subject: Poker Hand


An interesting hand at a tournament the other night:

Early in the Tournament, everyone has roughly $3,000 in chips. Blinds are $10-$20. I don’t know anyone at the tournament and how they play. I am under the gun, raise to $60 with AK offsuit. I agree with that. Get 5 callers.

The flop comes 10-3-3 rainbow. For the most part, that is a terrible flop for you with 5 callers. I bet out $200 to see where I stand. I agree with that. For starters, whenever a pair flops and all cards are smallish, it is quite possible that everyone mised the flop entirely. You might win the pot right there. If not, as you said, at least you know where you stand. Middle position player raises to $500. Late Position player calls, I call. You can call or fold. I would fold. You just found out where you stand (in a big pile of sh_t) You can only win by hitting runner-runner or perhaps by hitting one of the 6 outs that would beat a ten. In all situations that you could win (and there aren't many), your opponent (the raiser) likely has re-draws. To make matters worse, the other guy calling along could be hiding in the weeds with a monster. Three players to the turn.

J comes on the turn. I check, middle position bets $500, late position calls, I call. It isn't a terrible call. You've come this far. The worst set of decisions would be to call the flop just to fold the turn. While I would have folded the flop, you are committed to stick around for what could be a great suckout or a great call.

A comes on the river. I bet $500 Since you fear a raise, it is better to check and call than to bet. If he can't beat your two pair, he can't call, so there is no value in betting. There is, however, downside, middle position player calls, late position player raises to $1500. I reluctantly call, leaving me with roughly $400. Again, you came this far, so you need to stick with your plan. But, this is precisely why I would have folded the flop. Middle position player calls.

How would you have played this hand, and what to you think the other players had? See above

I will e-mail you later with their holdings, and where I think I went wrong. I look fwd to it.


3 Comment(s):

Posted by Blogger Junelli, at 10:55 AM, July 23, 2008  

I would have played that hand much differently:

First, I would likely just call the BB when UTG with AK. I don't think you gain much value by raising, and you're going to be out of position the rest of the hand. And you'll almost certainly have to give up the lead when you miss the flop.

AK isn't a great hand. In my opinion, people mistakenly overvalue it. You have 2 big cards. That's it. How often does it lose? All the time. They don't call it "walking back to Texas" for nothing.

On the flop, you're 6 handed. There is no possible way you're good, or are likely to simply pick it up with a bet. I would've check-folded. Auto-muck and move on.

Also, an astute player would recognize your continuation bet, and take the pot away from you very easily on the flop or turn.

However, the "feeler" bet is okay if you recognize that's what it is (and nothing more). You need to find out where you are.

The downside is that if ppl just call that bet, you really don't have much more information than you had before. This is why playing out of position is so tough.

In any event, you bet $200 into a $360 pot (the amount is fine). You get raised and then a smooth call behind him.

You're done with the hand. No question about it. Calling this bet is simply throwing good money after bad.

You made a bet to find out where you are, and you found out. What is the possible logic to call this bet? You could be drawing dead at the moment.

You call hoping to catch an A or a K (6 outs out of 47). And even if you catch that card, you still could be in deep shit. Actually it could probably be the worst card to see.

If you fold now, you lose $260. Instead you called the turn and river and lost $2,650.

I disagree with the turn call too. $500 to chase a gutshot? You played AK, and you missed the flop. Move on to the next hand. In my opinion, this is the classic situation of being too enamored with AK, and unable to get away from it.


Posted by Blogger Dr Fro, at 1:09 PM, July 23, 2008  

In summary, I think MJ and I agree with two possible exceptions:

- I have no problem with the pre-flop raise. If you get re-raised, you are AT BEST in a race and possibly dominated. Run away. If you check, you can't narrow down your opponent's hand quite so well if he pops in a simple raise.

- My approval of the call on the turn was contingent on the fact that we accept the appropriateness of the call on the flop (which we don't). But if it were correct to call there, you would call on the turn for the same reason.

MJ's comments on the astute player recognizing the continuation bet is n/a here. MJ's opponents recognize a c.b., but a random group of Joe's playing in somebody's garage over beer and pretzels wouldn't recognize a c.b. if it slapped them in the face. At least that is my experience. I only have one friend (Feather) who calls/raises my obvious c.b.'s.



Posted by Anonymous rakeback, at 4:44 AM, July 28, 2008  

6 handed on the flop with AK on a board of 10-3-3?
That's a no-brainer there. Definitely check-fold. Calling there or even pushing a continuation bet into 5 opponents is a big mistake. The rest of the hand shouldn't even be discussed: that was the decisive point, and you got it wrong there.


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