Posted by Dr Fro 3:00 PM
From the Mailbox, with my comments in red.
From: D. McNabb
Sent: Tuesday, July 22, 2008 8:47 AM
To: Dr. Fro
Subject: Poker Hand
An interesting hand at a tournament the other night:
Early in the Tournament, everyone has roughly $3,000 in chips. Blinds are $10-$20. I don’t know anyone at the tournament and how they play. I am under the gun, raise to $60 with AK offsuit. I agree with that. Get 5 callers.
The flop comes 10-3-3 rainbow. For the most part, that is a terrible flop for you with 5 callers. I bet out $200 to see where I stand. I agree with that. For starters, whenever a pair flops and all cards are smallish, it is quite possible that everyone mised the flop entirely. You might win the pot right there. If not, as you said, at least you know where you stand. Middle position player raises to $500. Late Position player calls, I call. You can call or fold. I would fold. You just found out where you stand (in a big pile of sh_t) You can only win by hitting runner-runner or perhaps by hitting one of the 6 outs that would beat a ten. In all situations that you could win (and there aren't many), your opponent (the raiser) likely has re-draws. To make matters worse, the other guy calling along could be hiding in the weeds with a monster. Three players to the turn.
J comes on the turn. I check, middle position bets $500, late position calls, I call. It isn't a terrible call. You've come this far. The worst set of decisions would be to call the flop just to fold the turn. While I would have folded the flop, you are committed to stick around for what could be a great suckout or a great call.
A comes on the river. I bet $500 Since you fear a raise, it is better to check and call than to bet. If he can't beat your two pair, he can't call, so there is no value in betting. There is, however, downside, middle position player calls, late position player raises to $1500. I reluctantly call, leaving me with roughly $400. Again, you came this far, so you need to stick with your plan. But, this is precisely why I would have folded the flop. Middle position player calls.
How would you have played this hand, and what to you think the other players had? See above
I will e-mail you later with their holdings, and where I think I went wrong. I look fwd to it.