Tuesday, October 14, 2008


Posted by Dr Fro 4:32 PM
Big Game Bob's Fake Punt

Was it a good call?

I think there are some poker analogies that could help to answer this question, but first we need to understand the conundrum of "a good call" in football.

One criterion for a call being good is that it fundamentally gives you the best chance of achieving your goal (independent of the chance of the defense anticipating such a move). A second criterion is the the chance of the defense anticipating such a move. As a general rule, the better a call measures on the first criterion, the worse it does on the second, and vice versa. A third criterion is how well the play could work out even if the defense anticipates it. It is because of the third criterion that the QB sneak on the goal line is called so often - it usually works even when it is entirely expected.

If Bob Stoops had waited for a situation that measured better on the first criterion, it would have measured poorly on the second criterion. And unlike a QB sneak on the goal line, it would have little chance for success if the defense were expecting it. So, there wasn't going to be a better time later. (Ergo, people who claim that he did it "too early" are wrong.)

The fact that it came up only 0.5 yds short is proof positive that it was not expected (i.e., that the first and second criterion were met and the third criterion was n/a).

There is, I believe, a fourth criterion: if the play fails, what do you lose? I think this is measured in terms of field position given to UT. We were returning punts well and the punt was against the wind, so it would be naive to assume that a punt would have pinned us deep. Even so, UT was able to score from seemingly wherever it started. So, rather than considering field position as an indicator of the ease with which UT might score, you could actually view field position as an indicator of how quickly we might score (i.e., how quickly OU gets the ball back). With this view, OU gave up nothing and perhaps gained something by giving up some field position.

In summary, the upside was huge and the downside was low. And since nobody expected it, the odds of success were pretty high. I call that a good bet.

Where is the poker analogy? I am going with a Post Oak Bluff against an experienced and tight opponent. Comment if you have a better one.

0 Comment(s):



Post a Comment




Google

Random thoughts from a lawyer, an accountant, a commodities trader, an ex-Marine and a WSOP Main Event money finisher that don't know as much as they wish they did...

--------------------

--------------------

Home Page

Email

Johnnymac-at-itaintgambling.com

What's this all about? Poker. Why we like poker. What we have to say about poker. How we play poker.

Why isn't it gambling?

ARCHIVE:

current
09/01/2003 - 10/01/2003
10/01/2003 - 11/01/2003
11/01/2003 - 12/01/2003
12/01/2003 - 01/01/2004
01/01/2004 - 02/01/2004
02/01/2004 - 03/01/2004
03/01/2004 - 04/01/2004
04/01/2004 - 05/01/2004
05/01/2004 - 06/01/2004
06/01/2004 - 07/01/2004
07/01/2004 - 08/01/2004
08/01/2004 - 09/01/2004
09/01/2004 - 10/01/2004
10/01/2004 - 11/01/2004
11/01/2004 - 12/01/2004
12/01/2004 - 01/01/2005
01/01/2005 - 02/01/2005
02/01/2005 - 03/01/2005
03/01/2005 - 04/01/2005
04/01/2005 - 05/01/2005
05/01/2005 - 06/01/2005
06/01/2005 - 07/01/2005
07/01/2005 - 08/01/2005
08/01/2005 - 09/01/2005
09/01/2005 - 10/01/2005
10/01/2005 - 11/01/2005
11/01/2005 - 12/01/2005
12/01/2005 - 01/01/2006
01/01/2006 - 02/01/2006
02/01/2006 - 03/01/2006
03/01/2006 - 04/01/2006
04/01/2006 - 05/01/2006
05/01/2006 - 06/01/2006
06/01/2006 - 07/01/2006
07/01/2006 - 08/01/2006
08/01/2006 - 09/01/2006
09/01/2006 - 10/01/2006
10/01/2006 - 11/01/2006
11/01/2006 - 12/01/2006
12/01/2006 - 01/01/2007
01/01/2007 - 02/01/2007
02/01/2007 - 03/01/2007
03/01/2007 - 04/01/2007
04/01/2007 - 05/01/2007
05/01/2007 - 06/01/2007
06/01/2007 - 07/01/2007
07/01/2007 - 08/01/2007
08/01/2007 - 09/01/2007
09/01/2007 - 10/01/2007
10/01/2007 - 11/01/2007
11/01/2007 - 12/01/2007
12/01/2007 - 01/01/2008
01/01/2008 - 02/01/2008
02/01/2008 - 03/01/2008
03/01/2008 - 04/01/2008
04/01/2008 - 05/01/2008
05/01/2008 - 06/01/2008
06/01/2008 - 07/01/2008
07/01/2008 - 08/01/2008
08/01/2008 - 09/01/2008
09/01/2008 - 10/01/2008
10/01/2008 - 11/01/2008
11/01/2008 - 12/01/2008
12/01/2008 - 01/01/2009
01/01/2009 - 02/01/2009
02/01/2009 - 03/01/2009
03/01/2009 - 04/01/2009

The Doctor is IN

Dr Fro
aka "slow roller"

Which one is the fish?

Junell
aka "Sunday Stroller"

You go now!

Johnny Mac
aka "Chop Suey"

You got to know when to hold em;  Know when to Mo' em ...

Morris
aka "Mo roller"

Old School

Padilla
"Baby's Daddy"


free hit counter

QUICKGIFTS

Beautiful handmade receiving blankets. Get yours today in flannel or seersucker.

Get Flash


I play poker at Poker.com