Posted by Dr Fro 8:10 AM
I have been out of town for the past five days. Friday we drove to Austin, Saturday we went to the UT-BU game, Sunday was the Day of Fro and Mon-Tues I worked in Austin. The Day of Fro was the brainchild of my main man, Heavy J. We ran 3.3m at Town Lake, showered and went to the University Co-op to load up on Xmas presents, went to the Salt Lick for some BBQ ribs, brisket, chicken and sausage accompanied by some cold golds, went to the Driftwood Winery for a tasting, swung by Beavis' house to see his kids then ended the night at Cain and Abels, playing pool for $50 a stick and having some celebratory tequila shots. Good times.

A week ago, I posted what I felt was the probable outcome for the Big XII South. As CKA pointed out, Tech beating OSU was the equivalent of UT being on a draw and hitting a blank on the turn.

Penn State's loss brings me to the subject of this post.

I would like to discuss some scenarios that are still possible, although each individual scenario is highly improbable. Collectively, they at add up to an aggregate probability that is not improbable.

1) Tech wins out, SEC teams falter and UT rematches Tech in the NC game.
2) OU wins out, SEC teams falter and UT rematches OU in the NC game.
3) Tech wins out but loses the CCG, thus sending UT to the NC game.
4) OU wins out but loses the CCG, thus sending UT to the NC game.

Scenarios 1 and 2 are reminiscent of 1996 when Florida lost to FSU in the regular season and got to rematch (and beat) them in the NC game. This happened because UT beat NU in the Big XII CCG.

Scenarios 3 and 4 are reminiscent of 2001 when NU went to the NC game by virtue of UT losing to CU in the Big XII CCG. NU did not even win their division.

If this happens in 2008, that'd be some serious history of an upset in the Big XII CCG sending another team to the NC game. Of course, there was 2003 when the loser of the Big XII CCG went to the NC game despite their loss. That was OU, and that brings us to scenario #5:

5) Tech wins out, as does Alabama. They are so far ahead in the BCS that even when Tech loses the Big XII CCG, Tech goes to the NC game.

Of course, if OU beats Tech, there are scenarios (although JG and CKA don't think it is likely at all) whereby UT wins the three-way tiebreaker. I see no way that Tech could win the three-way tiebreaker. I could see UT winning the tiebreaker as follows:
- Computers do not care about early losses versus late losses. They do care that OU would have lost to UT on a neutral field while UT's loss came on the road. They also care about our victory over Missou, a victory OU does not have
- Humans would, as they have many times in the past, make a point of putting UT ahead of OU to force the issue.
OU's strong card here is their victory over TCU, a card that is less strong after TCU lost to Utah.
Of course, we keep operating under an assumption that UT, Tech and OU manage to win the games where they will be heavily favored. The game most likely to be an upset is the KU-UT game. Do not be surprised if the wear and tear of a long season in a tough conference leads to a UT flop in Lawrence. I wouldn't bet on it, but I wouldn't bet against it. So there are more scenarios out there that involve UT in the CCG:

6) (the reverse of 2) OU wins out but UT goes to the CCG. SEC teams falter and UT rematches OU in the NC game.
7) (the reverse of 4) OU wins out but UT goes to the CCG and loses the CCG, thus sending OU to the NC game.

And our last scenario is the UT 2004 scenario:
8) Tech or OU wins out and goes to the CCG. UT, at BCS 3 or 4 gets an automatic at-large. They win and end up the season quite pleased with their results.

My favorite part of the 2004 analogy is that that I have read the sequel to that book (aka, the 2005 season), and enjoyed it very much.

Fun stuff.

Nobody has mentioned the Buck Burnette dismissal. Maybe that is because there is nothing to say other than: Hell yeah, he got kicked off the team. That was unbelievably irresponsible. To not be able to anticipate that what the consequences would be of his actions requires extraordinary stupidity. Unlike Rhett Bomar, who was able to re-surface at SHSU, BB is done. Name me a football team that doesn't have a whole bunch of African-American players. There isn't a locker room on the planet (this side of Arlington Heights H.S.) that would have him as a teammate.

Actually, back to Tech for a sec. I don't want anybody to get the impression that I am a Tech hater. My posts have had little to do with what I want to happen as much was what I project will happen. If it all plays out that Tech is in the NC game and UT isn't, I will cheer for Tech* just as I sincerely cheered for and was happy for OU in 2000 against FSU.

*I won't cheer for them if I bet against them, but that isn't because I hate Tech. It would be because I like money.

The WSOP wraps up today. I am unlikely to catch the game until Wednesday night, but I hope to have commentary on it then.

2 Comment(s):

Posted by  Anonymous, at 2:14 PM, November 12, 2008  

Interesting read on espn... http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/notebook?page=iform0812

1 point I was not aware of was that, according to the article, at least 1 computer (Billingsley) does factor in early loss vs. late loss...

and 1 point mentioned in the article that I was going to point out as well, is that OU has TCU and Cincy going for it. Cincy could win Big East and go to a BCS Bowl... UT's strength of schedule hinges on Mizzou and Rice.

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Posted by  Dr Fro, at 9:33 PM, November 12, 2008  

That is the first I have heard of any computer poll doing that....interesting. I know that they took M.O.V. out of the computers a few years ago.

CKA, you correctly pointed out something Ivan missed. He only looks at "non-conference" but of course games against B12 North teams (that OU did not also play) such as Missou count for Texas every bit as much as a non-conference foe would.

thanks

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