Friday, November 07, 2008


Posted by Johnnymac 10:31 AM
I was going to post this as a comment to Fro's post about the Big XII but decided to just write my own post.

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Fro said:
1/8 chance of UT/OU tie that would be broken by BCS standing - more likely to go to UT


I disagree with you about the BCS tiebreaker more likely to go to Texas.

It goes without saying that all of these scenarios require Texas to win out.

If Tech wins out, then Tech is undefeated and wins the south, period.

If OU wins out and Tech beats OSU, then it's three way between OU, Texas, and Tech at 7-1. That means OU won the last game of the three over the number 2 (or maybe even number 1 at that point, depending on LSU/Bama) team in the nation. Yes, Texas did the same thing, but when the relevant poll comes out that will have been almost 2 months ago instead of 2 weeks for OU beating Tech, and the pollsters will see 3 one-loss teams as a chance to "right the ship" so to speak and reset everything back to the way it was in September. OU will be ranked higher than Texas in that case, I can pretty much guarantee it, although the computers might help Texas a little bit because of the Mizzou win.

If OSU wins out and Tech beats OU, then it's three way between OSU, Texas, and Tech at 7-1. It might be closer, but in that case I could see OSU being ranked higher on the same logic sans the pre-ranking stuff - that OSU closed the season with wins against Tech and OU with a road win at Colorado in between for good measure. Not any more impressive than what Texas has done, but it will still be a question of "what have you done for me lately?" and I can see OSU getting the nod, at least from the voters.

Tech needs to lose twice for Texas to go to the CCG. This is not that unlikely. In that case there would probably still be a 7-1 tie with either OU or OSU but Texas has the tiebreaker with wins over both.

I think that OU is going to beat Tech, simply on the basis of revenge for last year in Lubbock, where Bradford got knocked out with a concussion in the first quarter. I would be tempted to say that OU wins that game big but I have too much respect for Tech right now to say that. They are undefeated and are a very good football team.

Far less likely, but still not at all a dream, though, is OSU winning tomorrow night in Lubbock. Tech has a special place in its heart for Texas and A&M coming to town, so the emotion simply won't be there like it was last week, and I have already heard many Tech fans blowing off a very good OSU team in anticipation of next week in Norman in much the same way that many Longhorn fans blew off OSU post-Missouri (Mack Brown quote, 6th paragraph down). Tech came out flat at home against a much worse Nebraska team and survived, they could do it again and "pull a Tech" and still have their annual surprisingly bad loss. I think Tech will probably win the game, but would not be surprised to see OSU pull an upset. In fact, I might even go with OSU +3.5 points when I make my wagers later today.

I don't think Baylor is going to beat Tech in Lubbock, however.

So my point is, the OSU/Tech game in Lubbock tomorrow night is HUGE for Texas fans. If Tech wins, you can pretty much write off Texas for the CCG or NCG, although no matter who wins the South, Texas will likely get an at-large BCS bid (maybe the Sugar Bowl versus an SEC team?) if they take care of business from here on out.

And finally, Texas fans, don't forget that next year is supposed to be the year for the Longhorns. This year has already been a pleasant surprise by far, as Fro has already pointed out.

I should also point out that being a native myself of the windswept dusty plains of West Texas, I follow Tech football very closely and cheer for them in every game but one each year. I will make an exception tomorrow night and cheer for OSU for the reasons listed above, but if Tech wins I won't be that upset about it and will look forward to next Saturday in Norman with anticipation of a really good football game with me having no interest in the outcome aside from whatever wager I might put on the game. Either way, I like Tech and am pleased with the season they have been having. I would not be upset at all seeing Tech go to the CCG and maybe even the NCG if Texas doesn't. Tech beating OU would be a fine consolation prize for me.

2 Comment(s):

Posted by Anonymous CKA, at 12:37 PM, November 10, 2008  

JMG,

While I do agree with you (see my response to Fro's post... note: posted before you, so in essence you are agreeing with me)...

The latest BCS rankings are a little concerning. UT increased their lead over OU from last week. Both moved up in the human polls, but UT got a little stronger than OU in both polls.

Interestingly, the computers saw otherwise... UT actually lost ground and OU got a little stronger.

All of the talking heads are outraged that some voters have OU ranked ahead of UT already... it will be interesting to see how voters respond if OU beats Tech. Will the "better to lose early" argument play out, or will voters factor in ramifications of voting OU over UT (in essence sending OU to another CCG, and potentially NCG/BCS game where Big Game Bob has been everything but "Big" of late?)

Also, interested to see what happens this week... Tech and OU are both idle - I imagine UT will pick up more steam, will they be far enough ahead to hold off OU?

I could see Harris and Coaches being split and it coming down to the computers...which probably bodes well for the Sooners, especially if Cincy and TCU can keep winning. It sure would be ironic for me if a 9-win Rice would convince one computer to give the edge to the horns...

Back to Fro's post and the diagram... While UT got help from Iowa and Utah, UT is on the "Tech wins" side of the bracket... which means Tech has a 3/4 shot of winning, and UT is down to a coin-toss in the last 25%... I am not a savvy enough poker player to know what card that would equate to in his analogy, but I would guess that's like 2h showing up on 4th street...

And finally, in the last paragraph of my ramblings, I am now wondering should OU win out, who would get the other BCS at-large - Tech or UT? Would both still be in the top 6? Two teams with both 1 loss... I imagine West Tx would scream bloody murder if their 1-loss team got passed over by a team they beat... Could UT's season really be 1 second away from National Championship or Cotton Bowl?



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Posted by Anonymous CKA, at 12:53 PM, November 10, 2008  

sorry, misread the analogy, thought there were 2 cards to go.

Think the analogy now is that it is a 3-handed match and Tech is in the lead... OU and UT are tied, but OU might be on the button, or at least have a stronger position.



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