I Fold. I think 3 hands that fit the play of the hand that have me beat are KK, 55, and AQ. KK fits the best; re-raising preflop out of position, checking trips on the flop, checking a full house on the turn, pushing on the river to try and make it look like he is trying to force you out of the hand with nothing. Re-raising preflop with AQ or 55 doesn't fit as well; however a looser player might do this.
What I have a hard time figuring out is a hand that he would play this way that we can beat (other than a total bluff). Unless I know this guy is a moron, I have to fold the hand (and even if he is a moron, I still would probably fold)
I figured only JJ, QQ, KK and AA would justify such a bold re-raise in a multi-way pot.
I agree that 55 or AQ would be pretty crazy to raise with here, so I ruled that out.
I actually figured TT didn't fit pre-flop. Even if it did, the post-flop check makes it ever more doubtful that he had TT.
So once he checked the flop, figured he either had JJ, QQ, KK or AA. (Of course a total bluff was an option, but pretty remote based on the evidence so far)
JJ and QQ missed the flop. KK checking would be a trap and AA checking is trap-ish.
So, with 1/2 of the possibilities trapping me and 100% of them beating me, I checked the flop, too. Anyway, I was getting a free card to a draw.
Same thought process on the turn.
However, for me, everything changed on the river. At this point, I figure he has only one of three things: -JJ -QQ -KK -AA -a total bluff I still have AQ ruled out due to the unlikelihood of the preflop re-raise from the SB.
So, I think it through like this: I doubt he has JJ or KK because the bet is too big. He would want a call, and my play to date gives him no reason to fear me. I decide he doesn't have the boat.
He could have AA or QQ, which makes a lot of sense. He figures he might be ahead, he might not but might force a fold (say he has QQ and I have AA) and he really feels confident that I don't have AQ.
That, or it is a total bluff. To believe this, I'd have to accept that he made the big pre-flop move with a hand that did not warrant it. But there are some hands that some people (i.e., morons) will play like this, such as 99.
So either I am beat by AA or QQ or I am being bluffed. I then make my decision based on the following: I doubt this guy would have checked along with AA or QQ. Thus, the only remaining possibility was a total bluff.
So I called. And it seemed like an eternity before the computer flipped our cards over.
phreaux: shows [Ad Jc] (two pair, Jacks and Fives)
phreaux collected $1106.40 from pot
I was very pleased with the result and marginally pleased with my decision-making. In retrospect, I didn't spend enough time considering QQ. I was certain that he was trying to get me to fold (as D Hock told me, I certainly induced a bluff) but I didn't fully think through the possiblity of being right, calling and losing any way. Only a stone-cold bluff from my opponent would lose to me.