Posted by Dr Fro 2:29 PM
WWYD?

Hold'em No Limit ($3/$6) - 2009/01/23 21:45:03 ET
Table 'Soyuz-Apollo' 9-max Seat #2 is the button

Seat 1: wobbly_au ($1039 in chips)
Seat 2: phreaux ($533.70 in chips)
Seat 3: deuces85 ($934.90 in chips)
Seat 4: cyberpeogh ($469.65 in chips)
Seat 5: LSP16 ($600 in chips)
Seat 6: BIGLivesOn ($659.55 in chips)
Seat 7: alanzao ($354.60 in chips)
Seat 8: Frogg 'em ($340 in chips)
Seat 9: amcawker ($593.55 in chips)
deuces85: posts small blind $3
cyberpeogh: posts big blind $6

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to phreaux [Ad Jc]
LSP16: folds
BIGLivesOn: folds
alanzao: calls $6
Frogg 'em: folds
amcawker: folds
wobbly_au: raises $24 to $30
phreaux: calls $30
deuces85: raises $96 to $126
cyberpeogh: folds
alanzao: folds
wobbly_au: folds
phreaux: calls $96

*** FLOP *** [Th Ks 5c]
deuces85: checks
phreaux: checks

*** TURN *** [Th Ks 5c] [5h]
deuces85: checks
phreaux: checks

*** RIVER *** [Th Ks 5c 5h] [Js]
deuces85: bets $702
I have $407.70.

What do you do? You can probably guess what I did, but tell me what you would have done (and why), and I will tell you how it ended.

6 Comment(s):

Posted by  Anonymous, at 9:16 PM, January 25, 2009  

Fold

- Butterfly Chica

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Posted by  Anonymous, at 8:49 AM, January 26, 2009  

I Fold. I think 3 hands that fit the play of the hand that have me beat are KK, 55, and AQ. KK fits the best; re-raising preflop out of position, checking trips on the flop, checking a full house on the turn, pushing on the river to try and make it look like he is trying to force you out of the hand with nothing. Re-raising preflop with AQ or 55 doesn't fit as well; however a looser player might do this.

What I have a hard time figuring out is a hand that he would play this way that we can beat (other than a total bluff). Unless I know this guy is a moron, I have to fold the hand (and even if he is a moron, I still would probably fold)

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Posted by  Anonymous, at 9:18 AM, January 26, 2009  

Pocket 10's also fit the play of the hand.

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Posted by  Dr Fro, at 11:36 AM, January 26, 2009  

I figured only JJ, QQ, KK and AA would justify such a bold re-raise in a multi-way pot.

I agree that 55 or AQ would be pretty crazy to raise with here, so I ruled that out.

I actually figured TT didn't fit pre-flop. Even if it did, the post-flop check makes it ever more doubtful that he had TT.

So once he checked the flop, figured he either had JJ, QQ, KK or AA. (Of course a total bluff was an option, but pretty remote based on the evidence so far)

JJ and QQ missed the flop. KK checking would be a trap and AA checking is trap-ish.

So, with 1/2 of the possibilities trapping me and 100% of them beating me, I checked the flop, too. Anyway, I was getting a free card to a draw.

Same thought process on the turn.

However, for me, everything changed on the river. At this point, I figure he has only one of three things:
-JJ
-QQ
-KK
-AA
-a total bluff
I still have AQ ruled out due to the unlikelihood of the preflop re-raise from the SB.

So, I think it through like this: I doubt he has JJ or KK because the bet is too big. He would want a call, and my play to date gives him no reason to fear me. I decide he doesn't have the boat.

He could have AA or QQ, which makes a lot of sense. He figures he might be ahead, he might not but might force a fold (say he has QQ and I have AA) and he really feels confident that I don't have AQ.

That, or it is a total bluff. To believe this, I'd have to accept that he made the big pre-flop move with a hand that did not warrant it. But there are some hands that some people (i.e., morons) will play like this, such as 99.

So either I am beat by AA or QQ or I am being bluffed. I then make my decision based on the following: I doubt this guy would have checked along with AA or QQ. Thus, the only remaining possibility was a total bluff.

So I called. And it seemed like an eternity before the computer flipped our cards over.

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Posted by  Dr Fro, at 11:38 AM, January 26, 2009  

typo...should have said "one of 5 things"

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Posted by  Dr Fro, at 10:19 AM, January 27, 2009  

deuces85: shows [As 7c] (a pair of Fives)

phreaux: shows [Ad Jc] (two pair, Jacks and Fives)

phreaux collected $1106.40 from pot

I was very pleased with the result and marginally pleased with my decision-making. In retrospect, I didn't spend enough time considering QQ. I was certain that he was trying to get me to fold (as D Hock told me, I certainly induced a bluff) but I didn't fully think through the possiblity of being right, calling and losing any way. Only a stone-cold bluff from my opponent would lose to me.

I'll take it.

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