Posted by Dr Fro 9:41 PM

I knew we were going to get our asses whooped this month, I just thought it would be next weekend.

Sometimes after a loss, I can say, "if not for ____, we would not have lost." The blank is usually filled with "that fumble" or "that injury" or something. I fill in the blank today with "that game."

I wonder how many times in college football history a team has returned a kick-off, a punt and an INT for a TD in the same game. Not often, I bet. I also imagine that no team has ever lost when they have picked up 21 points on the "cycle" of returns.

If you had told me 24 hours ago that we would lose to KSU and that OU is beatable next week, I would have asked if I could smoke what you were smoking.

I knew our O-line was suspect going into the season, and I was right. Then our O-line got injured, and it really got ugly.

There was a weekend in October of 2003 that 5 teams in the top 10 lost (if I recall correctly, UT lost to OU and then LSU lost to Florida prior to winning the NC). This weekend, it looks like 5 of the top 10 teams will lose (if USC wins and Fla. loses).

However much it sucks to lose, I am in either 1st or 2nd place in each of my 4 pools this week. Yes, I took KSU in 2 of them. (I took UT in one, and neither in the fourth one).

KSU is the only team in the Big XII with a winning record against UT since the inception of the conference (OU is 5-5-1). Although Coach Snyder is gone, Coach Prince beats us using his predecessor's formula: special teams and turnovers.

John, go the 'Stros game tomorrow. He will catch then, too.

I went 4-1 on the IAG football pickem contest (not one of "my four pools", I only count the ones that win me money.)

I never weighed in on this, but firing Phil Garner was stupid. If anybody can explain that one to me, I am all ears.

If you give me $1,200, I will mail you secretive emails with my honest assessment of Coach Fran's coaching abilities. (Hint: remember the email with the monkey smelling his finger and falling out of the tree?)

OU sucks.

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Posted by Johnnymac 7:15 PM
Well, this has been a shitty afternoon.

1.) The Longhorns lose embarassingly (wait, I'll do it for you: 12-7 Whooop)

2.) I am thus far down 3 units on my wagers (WTF BAYLOR?????) and pending Georgia (+2, losing by 14 w/ 3 minutes left) and Troy (-13 tied) in the 2nd qtr, I have 2 more units about to leave my pocket.

3.) Not only is it bad that Mrs Johnnymac decided this week that since Baby Johnnymac has been pulling her hair lately, she might as well cut it all off, we had baseball tickets to the Astros game tonight to see the Biggio catch for the first time in 100 years, Mrs Johnnymac thought the game started at 7:00 and stayed at her hairdresser's until well past a reasonable time to get to the game, so I'm going to miss that.

Can you tell I'm already drunk? That last sentence was kind of weak.


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Posted by Johnnymac 9:03 PM
Here are the football picks – I actually have them up on Friday for once! Now I just need West Virginia to wake up here in the second half, as of this writing they’re losing 14-3 and are looking like the JV scout team against the S Flordia offense at the beginning of the second half… Holy crap!

As far as actual wagers for me go this weekend, I am playing Baylor for 2 units and all the others for 1 apiece. Note that there is no Philadelphia Eagle action this week because no one took me up on my offer; for what it's worth, I think the Eagles will cover the -3 at the Giants and I think I'll pick it correctly this week because I'm not betting on it.


Dr Fro (7-8 season)

Cal + 5 v OREGON
FLORIDA STATE -2 v Alabama
Mich St +7.5 v WISCONSIN
COLORADO +23 v Oklahoma
Baylor +17 v TEXAS A&M


Johnnymac (7-8 season)

Baylor +17 v TEXAS A&M
W Virginia -7 v S FLORIDA
TROY -13 v La Monroe (I REALLY like this one)
Seattle -2 v SF
DETROIT +3 v Chicago


Padilla (6-8-1 season)

Louisville -9 v NC STATE
Pittsburgh -6 v ARIZONA
INDIANAPOLIS -10 v Denver
New England -7 v CINCINNATI
Houston -3 v ATLANTA


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Posted by Dr Fro 9:20 PM

Speaking of articles that cross the line, this one was in the DMN last week. How about this nugget:

Perhaps, if the Aggies' fan base stopped being so obsessed with every facet of UT's program and focused all of their energy and attention on improving their own program, they'd have better results.

That is going a bit far - how does a fan base "being so obsessed" affect the outcome of a football game, exactly??

The rest of the article is on point.

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Posted by Dr Fro 8:56 PM

WSOP Player of the Year, Tom Schneider, agrees that the Humberto Shtick is tired. He does a better job of explaining why than I did.

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Posted by Dr Fro 8:35 PM

A couple weeks after writing about Willie Williams, he makes the news again.

I've got an idea - UT needs linebackers, and we love dope smokers, so why don't we buy Willie a 'Sclade and he drive on down to Austin?

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Posted by Dr Fro 9:06 PM

WSOP 2007 on ESPN

I promised a post on the WSOP coverage. I have watched every week, and I have plenty of thoughts every week, but I have trouble organizing them in a meaningful way into an interesting blog post. So try no more! Here is an uninteresting blog post that is organized in no meaningful way.

First of all, to argue about whether High Stakes Poker or WSOP is the best poker show on TV is comparing apples and oranges. HSP is like an Oscar Award winning movie. WSOP is like watching the Oscars. The WSOP coverage is not really about the playing of poker. It is a celebration of the poker life.

I think they do a good job of capturing certain things in their coverage. For instance, when they ended the episode with the bubble popping leaving all remaining players knowing they were now in the money, I think ESPN did an excellent job of contrasting some agonizing hands that were potential bubble busters with the widespread celebration once the bubble burst. I recall Padilla describing the moment in 2005 well, and the coverage seemed to capture on camera what Padilla captured on the blog.

I love the way most people bust out and they show just how little any one cares. Dog eat dog world; exit is this way. I love how they highlight players that are chip leaders only to show them bust out hours later. I love watching pros lose on a massive suckout. You do get a very good sense of just how devastating the thing can be.

When I first saw Hevad Khan on TV, I thought the same thing as everyone else: This guy is annoying. I told Jane, “If he is ever at the featured table with Humberto Brenes, kill me.” Well, they were together last night, and I am glad Jane opted out of killing me. Are there any two more annoying players in poker? That said, are there many players that are better? More on that later.

I have always been interested in ESPN’s inclination to focus on mini-celebrities rather than just the big-name pros and the Cinderella stories. For instance, in 2003, they focused on Dutch Boyd. At the time, 99% of ESPN watchers did not know Dutch Boyd from Pink Floyd, but if you were a regular at rgp at the time, you knew who he was. This year, they have focused on guys like Kirk Morrison, also unknown to most of their audience but well known among the hardcore. Ditto with Kenny Tran. Well known if you are a professional poker player, but he’s no Doyle Brunson. And of course, there is Hevad Khan.

Hevad falls into the strange category of internet celebrity. I am not that big of an Internet geek, but even I know some of the biggest Internet poker celebs – Jennicide of internet poker and moderate-hotness fame, Russ GCA of poker forum fame, JJProdigy of multiple account infamy, and yes, Hevad Khan. Hevad Khan was rumored to be a bot on rgp. The reason was that he typically played 20 SNGs simultaneously, and at one time played over 40 tables simultaneously. Hell, I can open that many windows, but Khan won a shit load of money doing this. That is truly amazing. I had been wondering if/when ESPN would talk about this, and they finally did last night. He actually got his account suspended for a period of time until he proved that he was a human playing all those SNGs.

Here it is:

Now you can hate the player if you want, but the dude does have some unbelievable skills.

Much ado has been made of the three-way tie for the record for most WSOP cashes. The tie at 8 and is between Michael Binger (2007), Humberto Brenes (2006) and Phil Hellmuth (2006). It only occurred to me last night that as difficult as it has become to win the Main Event, it has gotten easier to cash. The percentage of players that cash in an event is constant around 10%. So growing fields don't really make it any less likely to cash. However, the explosion in the number of events offered certainly does. Thus, we shouldn't be surprised that the record was set in 2006 and tie in 2007.

And then there is the ubiquitous Humberto Brenes. Although his contrived shtick is tired, he is clearly a very good tournament player. He cashed eight times last year and he seems to make it late in just about every event on TV. So I will give him props. But kill me if I ever have to sit at a table with him.

OK, one more WSOP observation. Chris Moneymaker has really proven that he is awesome at poker ever since he won it all in 2003. Not! Man, contrast that with how well Raymer and Aussie Aussie Aussie have done. Even Jamie Gold, ass he may be, has played better poker than Moneymaker. Moneymaker's 15 minutes are over (except for the token coverage he gets in an early WSOP episode each year, which are really 15 minutes of train-wreck watching, the poker equivalent of starring on the Surreal Life).

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Posted by Dr Fro 8:23 PM

I am sure you have seen these before, but the past few weeks of college football have provided some real entertainment on youtube.

First, you have the Leach rant:

Then you have the Mike Gundy rant. Yes, the WINNER of the game went on a bigger rampage than the loser. If you don't understand the rant, you need to read the article that set him off.

The chick that wrote the article, Jenni Carlson, wrote a defense of her article.

Mike, you had a good point, but you need to work on being more articulate. Jenni, your defense sounds good, but the original ariticle did cross the line. You need to admit that. When you start out with "...tile up the back stories told on the sly ..." and "...if you believe the rumors and the rumblings..." and "...word is that ..." then you are not reporting. You are gossip mongering. You can't claim that Reid "sat it out instead of gutting it out" unless you are a trainer on the team. You are speculating. And don't bring his mom into this (only a chick could write that article because one lesson all boys learn growing up is you bring somebody's mom into this, you gonna get your ass whooped.)

Unfortunately, the Daily Oklahoman is fickle on whether you must register to read the articles linked. I think you can click around once or twice before they make you register.

Blog readers, you know that I consider sportswriters to be maggots, and I am glad Mike Gundy called her out. I just wish he had acted like a professional when he did it.

This one is a week old. The humor is subtle, but it is humorous indeed:

This is the most viewed Coach Fran one. If you haven't seen the Brittany Spears one it is spoofing, you should watch it first. The spoofs out there are numerous (there is one on the Gundy-Reid situation too), but this one is pretty funny.

Oh this is fun. When OU beats Texas a bazillion to nothing, you can have some fun with me (and Coach Brown), but for now it's fun with the other Big XII coaches.

And now I go watch the WSOP so I can actually have a poker-related post this week. Novel concept...

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Posted by Johnnymac 11:29 AM
Football results. On actual wagers I was 3-5 for a net loss of two units. Georgia Tech has killed me two weeks in a row now and I have no f'ing idea what to do with the Eagles. Last Monday Night when I bet on them they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn yet yesterday when I decided to go the other way they looked like they were channeling the 1999 Rams and covered by a whopping margin of 29 points. What the hell? At least UH and New England helped clean up some of the blood on my ticket.

Tell you what - I will make a $25 bet on the Eagles next week and for a $50 fee I'll let you know which way I am going so you can go the opposite. It's win win for both of us, just send me an email.

Dr Fro (2-3 this week; 7-8 season)

TEXAS -38.5 over Rice WIN
NEBRASKA -22.5 over Ball St LOSS
OHIO STATE -23 over Northwestern WIN
Penn State - 2.5 over MICHIGAN LOSS
ARKANSAS -7 over Kentucky LOSS

Johnnymac (1-4 this week; 7-8 season)

Oklahoma -23.5 over TULSA WIN
Georgia Tech -3.5 over VIRGINIA LOSS
Texas Tech -6 over OKLAHOMA STATE LOSS
ARKANSAS -7 over Kentucky LOSS
DENVER -3 over Jacksonville LOSS

Padilla (1-4 this week; 6-8-1 season)

LOUISVILLE -37 over Syracuse LOSS
LOUISIANA ST -16 over So Car LOSS
NOTRE DAME +12.5 vs Mich St. LOSS
Indy -6 over HOUSTON WIN
DENVER -3 over Jacksonville LOSS


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Posted by Dr Fro 5:57 PM

If you saw the end of the UGA-Bama game and understood what the hell the announcers were talking about, please enlighten me.

Patrick says to Todd Blackledge "I've got an important question."

Blackledge: "Go ahead."

Patrick: "What's Britney doing with her life?"

Blackledge: "Who?"

Patrick: "Britney."

Blackledge: "Britney who?"

Patrick: "Britney Spears. What's she doing with her career?"

Blackledge: "Why do we care at this point? Is she here?"

Patrick: "I don't think so"

Blackledge: "Is she a football fan?"

Patrick: "Oh, I'm sure she is."

Ball is snapped immediately following this exchange and Georgia scores winning TD.

Video:The Link

Dicussion on Hornfans.

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Posted by Dr Fro 10:41 AM

College Football Weekend in Review

Q: How about a little Q&A?

A: Sounds fun.

Q: How does Texas Tech throw for 646 yards and lose a game?

A: The wrong answer is that Michael Crabtree dropped a pass in the endzone at the end of the game. The right answer is that Tech's safety, Joe Garcia, needs to go to remedial open-field-tackling school. His missed tackle of OSU's tight end, Brandon Pettigrew, was not only the game-losing play, it was an embarrassment to all attempts at defense - even Tech's pathetic defense. Until Tech can learn to stop teams (OSU had 366 yards rushing), they will never be any good.

Q: How does the Big East lose Miami and FSU and become better than the ACC?

A: It is a trick question - a red herring. People say that the Big East is is good based on the "success" of WVU, Louisville and Rutgers. WVU is good, no doubt, but Louisville and Rutgers are not. If you gave 10 monkeys an IQ test, one of them would get the highest score. A couple other monkeys would get the second and third best scores. Similiarly, somebody has to get first, second and third place in the Big East, but these monkeys aren't actually good. The other half of the red herring is that any time a conference experiences success by no-name teams and failures by big-name teams, people incorrectly claim that the conference sucks. Well FSU and Miami may not be your father's FSUs and Miamis, but there are plenty of teams in the ACC that would put a whooping on the monkeys in the Big East. Don't believe me? Check back here in January.

Q: Why is it that when Vondrell McGee gets the ball, he is already at top speed, but when Jamaal Charles gets the ball, he is at a standstill?

A: I can think of two possible explanations. The first is that this is by design. That is, the plays run to Vondrell are designed to give me him the ball in stride. Call me stupid, but isn't that how to play football? That's how we did it when I played. If that is the answer, then we need to fire all of UT's coaches for being stupid. That, or somebody should tell them that when you have a track star at running back, he should use his speed to fly by opponents, a la Vondrell. The second possible answer is that this not by design but by execution. I find that hard to believe, but if it is true, then we need to change the depth chart.

Q: How good is the Big XII?

A: Not very. After OU, we have UT that has struggled in 3 of 4 games, Nebraska who got thumped by USC and scared by Ball State and A&M who, according to their coach, hasn't started their season yet. When an above average Big XII team gets thumped by a "down" Miami team, then either the Big XII (after OU) sucks really bad or the ACC is better than we give it credit for. Or both.

Q: How smart is Kirk Herbstreit?

A: Dude predicted in GameDay that the scene was set for an upset in Tuscaloosa. Dude was right. This proves not only that he is as smart as he is good looking (according to Wife), it really is true that on any given Saturday in the SEC, the mighty can fall. As such, I will continue my belief that the best team in the nation, LSU, will not go undefeated this year.

Q: Can you explain this to me?

A: No, I can't.

Q: What are the two best signs at GameDay so far this year?

A: The first one said "#1 USC, #2 LSU, #3 OU - Sound Familiar?" The second one said "Total Rushing Yards - Notre Dame: -8; Me: 0" Oh, how Knute Rockne must be rolling over in his grave.

And in the news of the weird, in light of Graham Harrel's 646 yards yesterday, the DMN had a chart showing the five highest single-game passing yards in NCAA history, all five were from (former) SWC schools. Odd.

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Posted by Johnnymac 10:35 AM
Here are the football picks. I promise I'll start posting these earlier in the week (my goal is Friday mornings) but I keep having busy Fridays, by Jove.

Johnnymac (6-4 season)

Oklahoma -23.5 over TULSA
Georgia Tech -3.5 over VIRGINIA
Texas Tech -6 over OKLAHOMA STATE
ARKANSAS -7 over Kentucky
DENVER -3 over Jacksonville

Padilla (5-4-1 season)

LOUISVILLE -37 over Syracuse
LOUISIANA ST -16 over So Car
NOTRE DAME +12.5 vs Mich St. (the total could be under 12.5)
Indy -6 over HOUSTON
DENVER -3 over Jacksonville

Dr Fro (5-5 season)

TEXAS -38.5 over Rice
NEBRASKA -22.5 over Ball St
OHIO STATE -23 over Northwestern
Penn State - 2.5 over MICHIGAN
ARKANSAS - 7 over Kentucky


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Posted by Dr Fro 8:39 AM

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Posted by Dr Fro 10:10 AM

I found an article on High Stakes Poker. It talks about the banter as well, adding:

If the table banter is what draws you to HSP, you are in for a treat also. The tongues were wagging non-stop. Here are just a few of the gems to look forward to:

• Hellmuth, to one of the new, unknown players: "I won't attack you. Unless you play bad. Against me."

• Harman, facetiously, to Farha: "Sammy, do you consider yourself a nit or a gambler?" Farha, in reply: "I wish I could be a nit. It would save me a lot of money."

• Gold: "I'll never be the best player, but I think I have the chance to be the best bluffer."

• Negreanu, to Hellmuth: "You could make money selling 'Phil Hellmuth' underwear!"

• Doyle Brunson, when another player showed a horrible hand after pulling off a huge bluff: "Now I remember how I became a millionaire."

Doyle is always good for a gem like that.

The most ridiculous quote was from Jamie Gold:

Likewise, Jamie Gold claimed to be unconcerned about his image. "I don't even think about it..."

Right.

Jamie is the most insecure, defensive SOB on televised poker.

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Posted by Johnnymac 9:25 AM
I caught an episode of this show when I was in Vegas last month when I was trying to take a nap in between a poker session and hitting the Palms pool with the rest of the guys I was there with for the weekend. Since then I have been hooked like a fish - I am normally not into reality TV or VH1 but this is one of the most compelling television shows I have seen in a while and I wholeheartedly recommend you check it out some time if you're flipping through the channels and need something to watch. Not to mention that the current season (and I sure hope there's a second) was filmed in a mansion on a lake in Austin. Granted, the guy who's in control, "Mystery," is a bit on the weird side, especially his clothes, but if you can get past that the show is something else.



Not only is it entertaining, but you might actually learn something. Oh to be single again! (no not really, honey...)


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Posted by Dr Fro 9:00 PM

I love poker on TV. The best show by far is High Stakes Poker. My favorite part of it is listening to the banter between the pros. Tonight they were (subtlely) making fun of Jamie Gold. Last week, they were brutally making fun of Phil Helmuth.

There is one thing I am SICK of hearing, and that is the word "sick". E.g., "that was so sick." Seriously, it got old a long time ago. Go find an original word.

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Posted by Johnnymac 7:56 AM
Football results from the weekend. Gambling wise I played each of the games below plus three others (OK State; Carolina; New England) for one unit apiece and ended up pushing for the weekend. Here comes another Monday night bet.

Johnnymac (3-2 this week; 6-4 season)

Texas Tech -28 over RICE WIN
GEORGIA TECH -6.5 over Boston College LOSS
FLORIDA -7.5 over Tennessee WIN
Louisiana Monroe +22.5 over TEXAS A&M LOSS
Green Bay +1.5 over NY GIANTS WIN



Padilla (2-2-1 this week; 5-4-1 season)

WAKE FOREST -20 over "University of Army" (per Lou Holtz) LOSS
OREGON -16x over Fresno WIN
NEW MEXICO STATE -5x over utep PUSH
Dallas - 3x over MIAMI WIN
New Orleans - 3 over TAMPA BAY LOSS



Dr Fro (2-3 this week; 5-5 season)

FLORIDA -7.5 over Tennessee WIN
MICHIGAN -7.5 over Notre Dame WIN
ucla -15 over UTAH LOSS
GEORGIA TECH -6.5 over Boston College LOSS
NEBRASKA+10.5 over usc LOSS


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Posted by Johnnymac 6:41 PM
Well, I have two things to add here this afternoon:

1.) That's the last time I go talk shit about the Aggies sweating it out against an inferior opponent.

and

2.) Forgot to post these last night but here are the picks for the weekend:

Johnnymac

Texas Tech -28 over RICE

GEORGIA TECH -6.5 over Boston College

FLORIDA -7.5 over Tennessee

Louisiana Monroe +22.5 over TEXAS A&M

Green Bay +1.5 over NY GIANTS



Dr Fro

FLORIDA -7.5 over Tennessee

MICHIGAN -7.5 over Notre Dame

ucla -15 over UTAH

GEORGIA TECH -6.5 over Boston College

NEBRASKA+10.5 over usc



Padilla

WAKE FOREST -20 over "University of Army" (per Lou Holtz)

OREGON -16x over Fresno

NEW MEXICO STATE -5x over utep

Dallas - 3x over MIAMI

New Orleans - 3 over TAMPA BAY


plus, Padilla sends this small explanation:

"I venture back to my days as a book, and my response to all those bettors that would call in with their sob stories about a missed FG or botched XP (bad beats stories of today).....

'If you're relying on that half point to squeak you by, you were dead wrong about the game anyway.' "


Well said.


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Posted by Dr Fro 9:29 PM

If you didn't see Noel Devine last night in the WVU-Maryland game, you missed a treat. He had 125 yard on 3 carries. Not bad. Type in "Noel Devine" on You Tube and sort by "date added." The college ones are sick but the high school ones are terminally sick.

This is the one from last night when he pulled a Barry Sanders:

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Posted by Dr Fro 10:58 AM
Do you think OJ will make a slow run for the border again?


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Posted by Johnnymac 10:25 AM
And in the spirit of even more video blogging this morning, whis was apparently a real fight:



More in the Chron (or at least MSM verification).


Football picks are coming, as soon as Padilla decides to send me his...


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Posted by Johnnymac 9:27 AM
From the same thread on Hornfans. This one is funny just because of the look on Phil Ivey's face.



If she really thought he had KK, then perhaps being scared of the trap is worthwhile, but I'm not quite sure what he did to earn that read from her. He only limped called her small raise preflop from the big blind and then called her bet on the flop. I certainly would not have thought he had pocket kings in that situation.

Then again, she has a bracelet and I don't.


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Posted by Johnnymac 9:15 AM
Via Hornfans:



I think after the "We both have quads" comment she should have just shut her mouth. The hole just kept getting deeper!


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Posted by Dr Fro 2:25 PM
Ex-UT quarterback Gardere arrested on DWI charge
By JOSEPH DUARTE
Copyright 2007 Houston Chronicle

Former Texas quarterback Peter Gardere was arrested early this morning for driving while intoxicated in Austin.

Gardere, the only UT quarterback in history to beat rival Oklahoma four times, was released on a personal recognizance bond. Gardere was quarterback at UT from 1989-92.


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Posted by Dr Fro 8:31 PM

What happens when a stoppable force meets a moveable object?

A&M is ranked #115 in passing offense, and they take on Louisiana-Monroe this weekend who is ranked #107 in passing defense.

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Posted by Dr Fro 6:45 PM

The Pursuit of Happyness

On Sunday night and Monday night, I cashed out of a poker game with $160. The Sunday game in Dallas was $0.50-$0.50 NLHE with a $50 buy-in, and the Monday game in Houston was $5.00-$5.00 NLHE with an, um, much larger buy-in. Needless to say, Sunday was better than Monday.

Actually, Sunday started out with me grading my football pools, all 4 of which I either won or tied for first. After tiebreakers, I made >$200 on the weekend. Poker netted me $110, and then I lost $10 on the Cowgirls-Giants game (a bet made just to be an asshole).

Monday night in Houston, Junell and I played with his friends. There was a $60 freezeout that he busted out of before I had even entered a pot. I busted out in about 30 minutes when my 99 lost to AQ when the AQ got running diamonds to back-door a flush. I knew it would not be my lucky night since I left my lucky charm in Dallas. I just didn't know how bad of a night it would be.

I played $5-$5 NL and it was a story with three chapters. The first chapter was the first 10 minutes of the game (I call this chapter, "Happyness"), when I won a $515 pot with KK vs AJs. The second chapter (I call this chapter, "Not as good as you think you are")was much longer and was highlighted by two hands with the same basic outcome: my opponent rivered a flush, I put him on a lesser hand, I bet into him and lost a huge pot. The third chapter of the night was when all the good players left and all the bad players sat down. During this chapter (I call this chapter, "Unfortunate"), I just couldn't catch anything, but Junell caught enough to storm back to break-even.

All night long, I got AA, KK, JJ, TT, AK, AKs, etc. Time after time, I got really big hands. Of course, this doesn't guarantee a winning session; it only guarantees that the pots will be big. Big they were. Win, I did not.

My basic problem was putting incorrect reads on hands. My usual strength was my weakness. Most huge pots were against people that just sat down, and I had very little read on these people given the short period of time playing with them. I suspect that Junell, knowing these players, could have made better decisions putting them on hands; he couldn't have made worse decisions.

The one great play I made was a very small bet (a $20 bluff) into a big pot with a board of KKK7. The bet looked like a "come over here and kiss me bet", and everyone folded. A big bet would have been called for sure. Good bet.

A City of two Tales

Two great stories came out of my night in Houston.

The first involves Antonio Esfandiari. His brother was playing there on Monday night. That might be an interesting enough story, but at one point, I looked up at the TV and High Stakes Poker was on. There was Antonio, and lo an behold, his brother was in the background sitting on the couch in the background. He shouted out, "there's my brother....and there's me" When the camera moved to Ted Forrest simultaneous with everyone looking at the TV, he said, "that's right Ted Forrest is my brother." Ted doesn't appear to have much Persian blood, so we all laughed.

The second story involves McAndrew. When Junell went to the can, McAndrew confided in me, "Fro, I've been gay my whole life. I have been 'actively' gay for the past year, and it feels really good." I congratulated him and then cashed out and went home.

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Posted by Johnnymac 7:27 AM
My buddy and I at work have an informal agreement to play on Monday nights if we push our bets over the weekend. Well, we did, and so we did, and we still pushed the 3 points on the late game.

Nonetheless, the 49ers "meaningless" extra point with less than 30 seconds left in the game wasn't meaningless to everyone - it was definitely eligible for Alcoa's Greatest Moments in Gambling History. Too bad Al Michaels wasn't covering the game, I would have liked to have heard yet another one of his creative references to "people in Clark County" or some such remark.

I had San Fran at home and gave the points so naturally I stayed up until 12:30 for it. Good times, but I'm drinking lots of coffee this morning.


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Posted by Johnnymac 11:22 AM
Looks to me like we were all 3-2 last week, so we're all 3-2 on the season.

Gambling-wise, I personally played the 5 games below plus I took Chicago +6.5 @ San Diego because I saw it more as a 4 point game (7-3 or 14-10) than a full touchdown and I'll be damned that Chicago's inability to get in the end zone even one time cost me a winning weekend. I was 3-1 on last week's (Sep 1) wagers, so that puts me at 6-4 on the season.

For blog purposes this year I will refer to my wagers all in terms of "Units". All of my bets the past two weeks have been for one unit, so for the season I am up by 2 units.

Johnnymac:

Hawaii -27.5 over LOUISIANA TECH LOSS
OKLAHOMA STATE -24 over Florida Atlantic WIN
PENN STATE -17.5 over Notre Dame WIN
Tennessee +6.5 over JACKSONVILLE WIN
Atlanta +3 over MINNESOTA LOSS

Padilla

LSU -12.5 over Virginia Tech WIN
TEXAS TECH -24 over Tex El Paso LOSS
BOSTON COLLEGE -13.5 over North Car State WIN
Denver -3 over BUFFALO LOSS
Pittsburgh -4.5 over CLEVELAND WIN

Dr Fro

LSU -12.5 over Virginia Tech WIN
PENN STATE -17.5 over Notre Dame WIN
AUBURN -6.5 over South Florida LOSS
Orgeon +7 over MICHIGAN WIN
GEORGIA -5.5 over South Carolina LOSS


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Posted by Johnnymac 10:53 PM
It is football season and I love football season. Why? Because I love to bet on football.

Last week Fro and Padilla and I put in our picks to post on the blog and follow each week during the season, and I dropped the ball when some work stuff came up Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. Then all of a sudden last weekend, a close family friend who had been fighting cancer passed away and I had to make a last minute trip to San Angelo for a funeral on Wednesday and I almost dropped the ball again on the football picks.

Luckily, Fro and Padilla liked the idea so much that they still sent me their picks today, so we'll get started a week late. I could go back and post last week's picks, too, but I can't find the lines after the fact.

Here goes (the rules are that you can pick any five games with published lines, college or pro... Mike and I will be picking so pro games, but Fro has some strange aversion to pro football, so he is sticking with the college games...)

Johnnymac:

Hawaii -27.5 over LOUISIANA TECH
OKLAHOMA STATE -24 over Florida Atlantic
PENN STATE -17.5 over Notre Dame
Tennessee +6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
Atlanta +3 over MINNESOTA

Padilla

LSU -12.5 over Virginia Tech
TEXAS TECH -24 over Tex El Paso
BOSTON COLLEGE -13.5 over North Car State
Denver -3 over BUFFALO
Pittsburgh -4.5 over CLEVELAND

Dr Fro

LSU -12.5 over Virginia Tech
PENN STATE -17.5 over Notre Dame (I think Craig might have been on it earlier in the week because his email mentioned 16 points)
AUBURN -6.5 over South Florida
Orgeon +7 over MICHIGAN
GEORGIA -5.5 over South Carolina (this one is now -3, so maybe he's looking to even out?)


That's all I got. I will be in town all week next week, I hope, and next week's posts will be more substantive.


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Posted by Dr Fro 10:00 PM

I have thoroughly enjoyed the WSOP coverage. Each episode inspires multiple blog posts, few of which ever are made.

Daniel Negreanu's featured table this week highlighted something about him that is very different from the rest of the the poker field: he has an uncanny ability (ESP?) to know what his opponent has. It was unbelievable how many times he called EXACTLY what his opponent had. This is something he has done on TV many, many times before this week's WSOP episode.

I have a ton of respect for Daniel. In fact, after Doyle Brunson, he seems to me to be the best poker player that we get to watch on TV.

But damn if he screwed the pooch when he raised with 8To only to blow his wad on a CALL when he flopped top pair, ten kicker. That was terrible.

Don't get me wrong, he'd take all of my money, but that hand is evidence that even the best in the game are human after all.

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Posted by Dr Fro 9:36 PM

A couple months ago, I was at an event with a speaker from the Baker Panel (that investigated the explosion at the BP refinery in Texas City). She is a professor at some jack-ass school in Cambridge, Mass, but she seems to know what she is talking about.

One of her main points was about the fallacy surrounding multiple "low-probability, high-consequence events." For example, let's say that the the only way I could blow up a refinery is if System A, B and C all stopped working (each with a probability of 1%), what is the probability of the refinery blowing up?

Well, bad math would say 1% x 1% x 1%. That math would be good as long as the probability of each was independent of the other. But that is rarely the case. To take an extreme case of dependence, assume that only one factor can make the systems go out (say, some fuse blows, probability of 1%). Then the probability of the refinery blowing up is exactly 1%. This is significantly different than the probability you would (incorrectly) calculate if you assumed no independence of probabilities (you would calculate 0.0001%).

As with all things in life, my mind quickly drifted to a poker application. How many big ticket things affect each probability to an extent that they are no longer independent? I came up with a few. I'll let you think about it and email me with your thoughts. Thus far, I have come up with drinking and general not paying attention.

More on this later.

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Posted by Dr Fro 9:22 PM

I was in Orlando last week for training. We got a poker game going that lasted well, well into the night. Since it was a work crowd, there was a different vibe to the game - people were coming and going and there was significant variance in the quality of player from one guy to the next.

We played a cash game of 50c-50c NLHE with a $40 buy in. We had many re-buys, most of which were mine.

It was a trainwreck for me.

For starters, I had some bad cards. Everytime I had a hand, I found myself up against a better hand. Everytime I was ahead, I got drawn out on. It was brutal. The long and the short of it is that I had been drinking a lot, which might be fine in other situations, but in this situation, it made my senses dull to some subtle things. For instance, with the people coming and going, the ability to *quickly* pick up on and adjust to each person was key. I was anything but quick. To make it worse, I kept assuming that each player was like the one(s) before. Since the earlier players were donkeys and the later players were rocks, this assumption had unfortunate consequences. Quite unfortunate, indeed.

If you are a player that plays his hands and not the players, you would have done well in this situation (or at least better than I). If your style is all about playing the player (i.e., my style), then you are f***ed when your drinking isn't keeping up with the ins and outs of players with different styles.

I made bad decisions and suffered the consequencees.

Now, I go to Austin to watch the Longhorns have their Waterloo.

Crap

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Posted by Dr Fro 9:28 AM

Chuck Norris has the greatest Poker-Face of all time. He won the 1983 World Series of Poker, despite holding only a Joker, a Get out of Jail Free Monopoly card, a 2 of clubs, 7 of spades and a green #4 card from the game UNO.

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Posted by Dr Fro 9:45 PM

I am watching the Louisville-MTSU game and a 15-yarder was just called on Willie Williams. If you don't recall Willie, read this.

Of course, ESPN left out what originally made Willie famous. He wrote a regular article in the Miami Herald during his senior year of high school (03-'04). The article was supposed to be something of a diary of his recruiting experience. I don't know he was chose intentionally for this reason (as they do with reality TV), but the dude was just about the dumbest writer ever. His post on his Miami visit was classic. I remember him being impressed that Butch Davis drove a 'Sclade.

You can't access the articles on the Herald's website without paying, but some quotes in this article are straight from his diary. If you didn't know it was for real, you would think it was a spoof.

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Posted by Dr Fro 4:30 PM

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Posted by Dr Fro 9:52 AM

I promised a college football preview/prediction post, and there is no time like an hour before kickoff on the first Saturday to write it.

The biggest question every year is who will play in the National Championship game?

It is instructive to first look at recent history for trends:

97: NU over Tennessee (split with Michigan)
98: Tennessee over FSU
99: FSU over VTech
00: OU over FSU
01: Ohio State over Miami
02: Miami over NU
03: LSU over OU (split with USC)
04: USC over OU
05 UT over USC
06: Florida over Ohio State

Out of 22 spots, only FIVE are occupied by teams that show up once (Michigan, VTech, LSU, UT, Florida). SEVENTEEN spots are occupied by repeats. Of the five that show up once, all five of them have very much been in the NC picture multiple times, but fell just short in the regular season. In the case of UT and Michigan, the team that kept them out of the NC game (OU and Ohio State) went on to win or at least play in the NC game.

The obvious explanation for this trend is that you have to cut your teeth in big games for a while before you are ready to win the biggest game of all.

So, it would seem silly to pick a team from outside of this elite club of teams to win the NC. That said, I won't. I will go with USC. They have an easy enough road to New Orleans, and nobody has the big game experience that Pete Carroll has.

Who will play USC in the Sugar Bowl? LSU is the second best team in the country, but unfortunately, the SEC is too damn tough. Add a conference championship game to the mix, and I don't see LSU coming out unscathed. WVU, on the other hand, plays weaker competition. Thus, I say WVU plays punching bag for USC in the Sugar Bowl. (Note that LSU would probably beat the pants off of WVU, but that is irrelevant. WVU has a better chance of being undefeated than LSU.)

So who wins the Heisman?

Darren McFadden is great, but look at the Heisman winners of late, and you will see that they come from teams in the NC race. That said, you look at Booty (USC) and Slaton (WVU). I say that Booty suffers from the Klingler effect and the trophy goes to Slaton.

Ballsy prediction?

Florida plays LSU twice this season and beats them both times! That's a ballsy call, and I wouldn't bet on it without getting some long odds, but it could happen. What is quite likely is that they will beat them at least once (thus my prediction that LSU will not play in the Sugar Bowl.)

How 'bout them Horns?

They are good, but there are a lot of question marks. That is not a euphamism that suggests we have weaknesses. We truly have question marks, notably at O-line and Secondary. If the highly recruited, inexperienced guys shine, so will the Horns. If they struggle, so will the Horns. We only have 4 games that are lose-able: TCU, OU, NU, A&M. We will be favored in all four games, but even if we are, say, 65% likely to win each, we have only an 18% chance of winning all four. Since inexperience is the issue, I would say that the early games pose a greater risk than the later games. So, watch out for the TCU and OU games. We own NU (2-0 in Austin, 3-0 in Lincoln), and by the time we play A&M, the inexperienced players will have a season under their belts. I say we lose one regular season game, win the Big XII and play in the Fiesta Bowl.

How 'bout them Ags?

I could see them winning in Miami, but I think the Big XII will eat them up. Whatever accomplishments Fran has had (beating UT is a notable one), it is hard to look past the following facts:

• They have road games at Miami, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Missouri. Since the Big 12 formed 11 years ago, A&M is 2-12 in games at Tech, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Missouri.
• Their defense allowed 4.3 yards per carry and 20.7 points per game in 2006.
• Two years ago, A&M had the worst pass defense in the country.
• There have been two losing seasons and a combined record of 2-10 against OU (0-4), Texas (1-3) and Texas Tech (1-3).
• Franchione is 0-2 in bowl games, losing those games by an average of 33 points.
  

I am not going to say it is impossible that Fran will turn it around this season. But thus far, there has been nothing to suggest he is even close to the sort of success that was expected when he was hired. He is not this close from greatness...he is light years away.

And finally, another Florida-related bold prediction: Tim Tebow goes to New York in December.

It should be fun.


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