Monday, January 26, 2009

Posted by Dr Fro 3:51 PM
It's only about 5 more weeks until Season Five of High Stakes Poker. Evidently, Barry took a bit of a beating this time. As a reminder, even if you don't get GSN, the show is uploaded to YouTube in 4 separate 15-minute increments shortly after each airing.

(0) comments

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Posted by Dr Fro 9:08 PM
I finally got off my ass on the ball and dowloaded Poker Tracker. It's pretty damn cool. I am still figuring out all the bells and whistles, but here's 3 neat things:

1. I learned that I am paying just south of $9 per "hour" in rake at $3-$6 NLHE. When I play two tables at once, I pay $18 per hour. Seems steep.

2. I definitely don't have enough hand history, as demonstrated by what hand is my third most profitable starting hand (sample of 3 times I was dealt).

3. You can run neat graphs on how you did each day. This is today.

I'm sold.

(3) comments

Posted by Dr Fro 7:37 PM
When the Dallas media takes a break from covering the Cowboys, they occasionally cover something that I find interesting. Today's paper had an article on poker.

It mainly covers the underground scene, but it also makes brief mention of the bill proposed last session by Rep. Jose Menendez, D-San Antonio.

Maybe the economic downturn will force the state to look for new sources of revenue. I think we'll get it some day, but probably not soon.

(0) comments

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Posted by Dr Fro 2:29 PM

Hold'em No Limit ($3/$6) - 2009/01/23 21:45:03 ET
Table 'Soyuz-Apollo' 9-max Seat #2 is the button

Seat 1: wobbly_au ($1039 in chips)
Seat 2: phreaux ($533.70 in chips)
Seat 3: deuces85 ($934.90 in chips)
Seat 4: cyberpeogh ($469.65 in chips)
Seat 5: LSP16 ($600 in chips)
Seat 6: BIGLivesOn ($659.55 in chips)
Seat 7: alanzao ($354.60 in chips)
Seat 8: Frogg 'em ($340 in chips)
Seat 9: amcawker ($593.55 in chips)
deuces85: posts small blind $3
cyberpeogh: posts big blind $6

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to phreaux [Ad Jc]
LSP16: folds
BIGLivesOn: folds
alanzao: calls $6
Frogg 'em: folds
amcawker: folds
wobbly_au: raises $24 to $30
phreaux: calls $30
deuces85: raises $96 to $126
cyberpeogh: folds
alanzao: folds
wobbly_au: folds
phreaux: calls $96

*** FLOP *** [Th Ks 5c]
deuces85: checks
phreaux: checks

*** TURN *** [Th Ks 5c] [5h]
deuces85: checks
phreaux: checks

*** RIVER *** [Th Ks 5c 5h] [Js]
deuces85: bets $702
I have $407.70.

What do you do? You can probably guess what I did, but tell me what you would have done (and why), and I will tell you how it ended.

(6) comments

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Posted by Dr Fro 3:19 PM
I told you so.

(0) comments

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Posted by Dr Fro 9:30 PM
This is why I love internet poker

PokerStars Game #23879440451: Hold'em No Limit ($3/$6) - 2009/01/13 22:25:44 ET

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to phreaux [As 2h]
BrokerOf$$: raises $6 to $12
jmar2209: calls $6
SQUi5HiiFiSH: calls $12
kabutze joins the table at seat #7
phreaux: calls $9
xfactr21: folds

*** FLOP *** [7c 7s Ac]
phreaux: checks
BrokerOf$$: bets $26
jmar2209: folds
SQUi5HiiFiSH: folds
parkview888 joins the table at seat #2
phreaux: calls $26

*** TURN *** [7c 7s Ac] [9d]
phreaux: checks
BrokerOf$$: bets $56
phreaux: calls $56

*** RIVER *** [7c 7s Ac 9d] [4s]
phreaux: checks
BrokerOf$$: bets $116
phreaux: calls $116

*** SHOW DOWN ***
BrokerOf$$: shows [6c 5c] (a pair of Sevens) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
phreaux: shows [As 2h] (two pair, Aces and Sevens)
phreaux collected $448 from pot

(3) comments

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Posted by Johnnymac 8:08 AM
Hey, he is from Ohio.

(1) comments

Friday, January 09, 2009

Posted by Dr Fro 8:23 PM
I'll try to get all my final thoughts on the college football season into one, final post

BCS Championship Game
Could the announcers have loved Tim Tebow any more than they did? Thanks to Corby Davidson (Here he is, the Cooobra) for this link. You gotta listen to it. These guys basically put Tim Tebow in second place all-time for best guy ever against Jesus (yet he finished third in the Heisman...)

Here's a thread making a similar point.

Big Game Bob was a media darling for his first few years. One reason why was his machismo, caution-to-the-wind approach. Since Mack Brown was Mister Play-It-Safe (who fortunately, when after waiting his whole damn life to take that flight, his plane most definitely did not crash down, but he did say "well, isn't this nice?") and since Bob had a nice streak against Mack, the media attributed their relative successes to their gambling or lack thereof. Fake punt? Brilliant! Bob's machismo approach doesn't look so pretty when it fails. His decision to go for it on fourth down was nothing short of reckless. It was stupid. I doubt he learned his lesson.

The announcers pointed out that the referee, Ron Cherry, was the first African American to ref a BCSB Championship Game. They failed to mention that he is also famous for this.

Bowl Season
The officiating was bad the whole bowl season. Actually, the officiating is always bad in college football. There is no such thing as holding in the Big XII. Excessive celebration is called on such an arbitrary basis. So much as breath on a QB or punter, and it is unnecessary roughness, but a WR can push around a DB all he wants. It is all so stupid. Good coaches (of which there are plenty) adjust their game to the know whims of the crew. It is a sad state of affairs.

A lot of the teams looked out of sync. The Fiesta Bowl and the NC game were the best examples. This isn't surprising since those were the games with the longest time off leading up to it. I really wish the games would end on January 1.

I also got sick of the announcers on ESPN asking each other: Which game are you most looking forward to? They all answered "the Rose Bowl". No fucking way. Really? What a coincidence - that is the only BCS game covered by ESPN/ABC. How convenient.

Of course most things in football can be explained by TV. The demise of the Southwest Conference has been written about extensively, and every book explains the role of TV contracts. ESPN's conflict of interest in being "journalism" and also a broadcaster of games compromises their ability to do either. Speaking of TV...

Notre Dame won their bowl game (now it's A&M's turn), and people want to know if they are "back." I think it is helpful to look at why they used to be good. I have no idea why they were good 80 years ago, nor do I care. I guess they just had some good players and coaches. But they kept it up to the modern era and managed to get the sweetest TV deal of all time. It wasn't about the money, it was about the recruiting. Notre Dame could go anywhere in the U.S. and tell kids that if they came to South Bend, they would be on TV (almost) every Saturday. National TV. That meant their mama back in Smalltown, Nowhere could watch the kid on TV, too. This was a tremendous advantage. It was a tremendous advantage that compensated for some natural disadvantages (higher academic standards and being located in the middle of nowhere to name two).

But Fro, Notre Dame still has that contract with NBC

Shut up, I'm not done. Notre Dame was last good in 1993 when they ended up #2 behind Florida State (whom Notre Dame beat, btw.) This lines up pretty nicely with the time that two things were happening. First, there was a proliferation of channels available to Americans - channels that were getting into the business of broadcasting football games. Second, conferences (the SEC moved first) were lining up their own sweetheart deals. It was your basic arms race whereby Notre Dame's "advantage" was now shared with anybody. Put another way, Mack Brown can also tell that kid that he will be on TV almost every Saturday, too.

With the massive advantage gone and the disadvantages still present, Notre Dame is in a tough position. Very tough.

I think there is a misperception that "rich tradition" has a causal effect on future success. It does not. The two are correlated, but the relationship is not causal. Rather, they are correlated due to "common causation" In other words, there are inherent advantages at some schools (size, location) that caused past success and will cause future success.

So, I don't see Notre Dame's tradition bailing them out. They can be good enough to not be a joke, but I doubt they will win a championship in the next 30 years.

Well, it ended with Florida winning it all and three teams (UT, Utah and SC) with an argument. I have to say that just when you thought the BCS couldn't end in another unprecedented manner, it did. Even in 2000 when 5 teams thought they deserved to play in the NC game, when the dust settled, there was only one undefeated team, OU. It was undisputed. But, the rules of the game are what they are, and only two teams qualified under the system to play, and one of those teams won. In the old system, I might have voted Utah #1. But one thing really bugs me about them (and it bugs me more that nobody in the media brings it up): UT was scheduled to play Utah this year, but Utah backed out. Pussies. The stated reason was that the growth of their conference schedule required them to drop a game. OK, but why did you drop our game? Scared?

Of course, under the old system, all the teams would have played different opponents in different bowls, so it is hard to say how it would have worked out. But, the playoff opponents, whose #1 goal is to have a clear-cut winner come out of a system that gives ample opportunity to all teams, have their ammunition for their argument.

Although I am not thrilled with how the season ended, I still think it highlights an obscure benefit of the current system. The system left many people thinking that no one team clearly differentiated itself from the pack. This is, incidental, a result that accurately reflects the field. A playoff would have manufactured a "champion" that may not have been much better (or even better) than the others. Every season would produce such a champion. I like the fact that we don't have any such manufactured champions. Instead, it is only every once in a while that a team kicks so much ass that they are recognized by everyone as the greatest ass kicker out there. OU did it in 2000. We did it in 2005. It makes, IMHO, those championships have greater weight. And I think that is a good thing. I know, I am a lone voice blogging in the wilderness.

On the subject of coaches politicking and fans "whining". First of all, what coach would not politic for their team? Who would want to play for a coach that wouldn't? You are a fool if you think UT and USC were #1 and #2 that Urban Meyer and Bob Stoops wouldn't be shouting from the highest mountain about them deserving to be #1 or #2 leading up to the penultimate rankings. On the whining. Try for a second to be objective. Of course Sooners and Aggies say that UT fans are whiners. They hate everything about us. Just as we put the coaches in the other shoes, put yourself in our shoes. You are a big fat liar if you would just shrug your shoulders and say "aw shucks, there is always next year". Anyway, you didn't hear this guy whine by any measure.

I am still confused about the final coaches poll. Mack Brown said he would vote UT #1. Then we learned that they only fill out ballots for #2-25, so that is impossible. So, how did Utah get a #1 vote? I did some cursory research and gave up.

Back to the lobbying, but this one by the fans. Remember the 45-35 campaign? If I were the Director of Communications, I would not have gone with that message. As Bob Stoops pointed out, that is stupid. That was the nature of the tie - we beat them, they beat Tech, Tech beat us. A much, much more persuasive message would have been "They lost by 10 on a neutral field." A subtle twist, but if you focus people on the MOV and location of each of the three team's losses, UT would have won out on both MOV and location. Maybe I should get a career in politics. Hope. Change.

My Bowl Game Best-of List
I left out a big shout out to my man, Pat White, for being the first QB to win 4 bowl games. Good for him. I'll be anybody $100 that his record gets tied next season.

I also left out big shouts-out to UH and Rice. UH broke is bowl losing streak and put together a nice season. Rice, who was my biggest bowl pick of the season (ranked highest in my polls that use a ranking system, and the only one on which I bet) was impressive, too. The states of Texas and Florida both had 4 victorious teams in bowls. That's much more impressive than the Big XII South which went 1-3.

Speaking of which, the Big XII vs SEC talk tire me out. I have no problem conceding that the SEC was better this year, but I will not concede that the NCG was proof of that. Florida beat OU by 10? Join the crowd. Had we played Florida, the result could have been different. Plus, OU showed they were a good team, but good teams can't win when they blow it TWICE on the goal line and also have a brilliant pass to their tight end called back for holding. Those three things could have been worth 21, but they were worth nada. It only proves that Stoops isn't the messiah he once was thought to be. But this "SEC speed" thing is old. Congratulations to the SEC for winning the last three championships; they are the best conference, but not by as much as they think.

My Pre season Predictions
What, this old thing?

Here they are, along with the grading:

  1. UT will win 10 games. We won 12

  2. OU will win the conference... Unfortunately so

  3. ...and go to a BCS game They sure did

  4. ...but not win the NC No they didn't

  5. A&M will start Jerrod Johnson at some point Yes, they did

  6. The SEC will win the NC ... Boy did they

  7. ...over USC Not really

  8. Tebow gets the Heisman He got a ticket to NYC, but no hardware

  9. Pat White is the runner-up Not even close

  10. WVU to the BCS Kinda close

  11. UT finishes higher than Tech in the B12 I guess if you apply the tiebreaker

  12. UT finishes higher than Tech in the final AP By a mile

  13. Coach Mangino manufactures a controversy Not that I know of

  14. The SEC is decided by a blocked field goal attempt. It was a blocked PAT that was of importance, but it did not decide the championship

  15. Junell is still gay at season's end. Last I heard, he lost both his heterosexuality and his dignity in a big game for which he had insufficient poker skills and bankroll.

  16. Kansas loses to South Florida Yes, sir
My Pools
Pool #1 Heath Pool
Cost was $31. Season long pool against the spread. I tied for third (would be $780) but lost the tiebreaker by 1 point and got 4th ($520). I also tied for a weekly prize, taking home $75 for that, too.

Pool #2 Hickey/Higon/Boyer Pool
Cost was $52. Season long pool straight up. I got first place (as I did in 03 and 07). I won $700 for my effort.

Pool #3 Watt Pool
Cost was $100. I lost on a controversial ruling. You bet on games based on the posted opening line on USA Today. They posted a line that was waaay off from the line on any other service. Rules is rules, so I bet it. They ruled that was a breach of (their interpretation of) the rules. That put me on tilt; then I lost.

Pools #4-6 Misc
I did three bowl pools. Total cost was $55. In each of the three, I was one correct pick away (i.e., the bubble boy) from getting money.

So, I netted $1,017. I have to give $200 to ARH for the second year in the row for the position we take in each others picks, so I end up with 8 hunksie. Maybe I should quit my job. Not really, but that is quite a bit better than Dr Fro did in the stock market. We aren't talking about that any more.

That's it for college football. It's just poker for the next two months. Then basketball. And jokes about Junell being gay. And heavy drinking.

(4) comments

Posted by Dr Fro 3:08 PM
Maybe I should renew my subscription to S.I.

(0) comments

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Posted by Dr Fro 10:52 AM
I make a lot of blog posts when I am on boring two-hour conference calls...

I took three weeks off for Christmas. I'll spare you the 100+ photo slideshow and give you a 4-photo summary of my time off:

We started out the holiday by going to Playa del Carmen, Mexico for a few nights. Santa was also resting up for his upcoming busy season:

We went to the zoo one day. Elise is getting better at walking. She can go about ten yards on her own but a lot farther if Daddy holds her hand:

I did a lot of honey-do projects. Only one is photo-worthy. Here is the newly painted wall in our den with new moulding:

Both kids on Christmas Eve. I don't know who their dad is, because they are too damn good looking to be my kids:

(0) comments

Posted by Dr Fro 10:17 AM
Fly Eagles Fly, On The Road To Victory.
Fight Eagles Fight, Score A Touchdown 1-2-3.

Hit 'Em Low.
Hit 'Em High.
And We'll Watch Our Eagles Fly.

Fly Eagles Fly, On The Road To Victory.

(3) comments

Posted by Dr Fro 8:39 AM
We've had a consortium of guys sharing Astros season tickets since the 'Stros were in the Dome. Unfotunately, a combination of the economy and the quality of play has led to people dropping out of the consortium.

The tickets are great - field level, in between home and third.

We typically get about 9 guys to get 9 games each. The greatest benefit of being in on season tickets is the ability to get post-season tickets at face value (in good seats at that).

Let me know if you are interested. You can get full shares (4 seats * 9 games) or any fraction of a share you want. Cost is just face value * number of tickets.

(0) comments

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Posted by Dr Fro 8:17 PM

Some misc blog updates...

Poker tournament
We had a poker tournament in the Siberia Room (my garage) on 12/29. Twenty guys at $60 a pop for a pot of $1,200. I got 7th (or so, maybe 8th). I didn't get much in the way of cards. Probably my best hand wasn't even one I one. Matt called, I called with JJ (hey, I was in early position..anyway, wait till the end of the story to criticize), another caller then a small raise. He gets one call then its all folds to Matt, who goes all-in. Really? An early call and then all-in? From a very tight player? I show my cards to CCM and fold. The raiser goes all-in and a short stack calls. I don't recall what the shortstack had but the original raiser had A6o. Matt had QQ. I KNEW IT! Anyway, the A6o won when four diamonds came.

My decision was based largely on the fact that Matt is tight and would only do that move with a small range of hands, almost all of which beat JJ. The other reason for the fold was that I expected the (loose) original raiser to call and I certainly expected the short stack to. My JJ isn't very powerful in a 4-way pot. CCM said he would have called in an instant.

I lost when I was down to an M of 3.5 with the BB coming in a couple hands. I went all in with KJ. I got beat by Ax.

Whe paid out 4 places. With 5 players left, three people got all-in a pot. Tournament rules always (to my knowledge) give the 4th place money to the person who had the biggest stack at the start of the hand. The reasoning is, I believe, that even thought the side pots are awarded first as an administrative matter, the pots are actually contested in the opposite order. In other words, all 3 players competed for the main pot. After that, 2 players competed for the side pot. Anyway, I was inside putting the kids to bed and the two eliminated players mutually agreed to let the player with the best hand to take the 4th place prize. Then they showed their hands. KK and QQ. The guy with QQ had the bigger stack. He shoulda won the $130 prize but he won nada.

The question is: did he give away $130? I say no.

Prior to the mutual agreement, he basically had $130 coming to him. EV-$130. When the agreement was made, there was a 50% chance of winning $130 and 50% chance of winning $0/ EV=$65. That is a loss of EV of $65. The other way to view it is that he had $130 but he gave his opponent $65 and entered into a $65 side bet. Still an EV of $65. So Mister QQ (aka Budakleck) gave away $65, not $130. That will help him sleep better.

The tournament was won by the same guy that won last year. Second place went to the guy that won our league tournament. Who said skill plays no role in tournaments? Of course, in addition to skill, they also got dealt hands early, in the middle and in the end. It isn't good enough to be good unless you also get cards.

Fiesta Bowl
What a sloppy game. Colt's INT was his ugliest pass of the year. tOSU committed too many stupid penalties. Why did they cash in on the double QB formation only once? Why did their DB try to make a play on the ball when he should have just tackled Quan Cosby? Why did we commit TWO penalties on defense to keep their drive alive? And FOX sucks! The announcers sucked. The graphics were wrong or missing. They lost sound when they wanted to interview Mack Brown. The worst was their inability to get to the game after a commercial break and in between downs (the UT hurry up threw them off). It was just ugly.

Of course, I was thrilled we won. I'll take ugly-good over pretty-bad any day.

Does Mack Brown get fined if he votes UT #1? Or do they throw his ballot out? Probably the latter. CKA probably knows.


I consider myself damn good at picking games (see below). This is a tough one. I start out by thinking that OU absolutely looked more impressive to me over 13 games than Florida did. But 2 things have happened....

First, OU has had some tough injuries at linebacker and RB. They are without their best defensive player and their second best offensive player. Unlike 2000 when they suffered nary an injury, this team is banged up (and I think the drop off to 2nd string is bigger than they'll admit).

Second, the SEC has looked better than the Big 12 in bowl games. Throw Alabama out since they were missing two starters on the offensive line (including the best in the country). Ole Miss looked good and LSU looked great. Meanwhile, Missou wins in OT over Northwestern and Okie State loses. Tech loses and UT, thought they won, barely beat a team that was considered to be a tier below the NC-calibre teams.

Those things give me a lean toward Florida. Then I remember that Urban Meyer is money in bowl games and Big Game Bob is not exactly Coach January.

So, I'll take the Gators.

That said, I don't like them enough to bet on them.

I won one pool already. In a second pool, I clinch first ($700) if Tulsa wins tonight. In a third pool, I place in the money if OU beats Florida. Two other pools I am on the leaderboard but unlikely to win. I'll have a summary later as well as a long post that has been in my head for a while on betting strategies in office pools.

(4) comments

Posted by Junelli 11:57 AM
If Florida beats Oklahoma AND
Texas beat Oklahoma AND
Texas Tech beat Texas AND
Ole Miss beat Texas Tech and Florida, SHOULDN'T
Ole Miss be ranked #1 (if Florida beats Oklahoma ...)

(0) comments

Sunday, January 04, 2009

Posted by Dr Fro 2:37 PM
John, I finally found that RickRoll you were looking for:

(0) comments

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Posted by Dr Fro 10:09 AM
The Bowl Season is nearly wrapped up. I figured I'd get my shots in before UT provides material for making fun of. Here is my awards list for the bowls so far:
  • Craziest ending: ECU-Kentucky - A fumble returned for a TD that was called back, another fumble returned for a TD that should have been called back but wasn't and a guy accidently kneeling on the 1-yd line on a KO return all happened in 1 minute of football.
  • Best highlight that they didn't play over and over on ESPN: Clemson back, Chris Spiller, returned a kick and shook off 7 tacklers - The eleventh tackle-attempter was one of 4 guys in on the final, successful attempt at a tackle.
  • Strangest decision: Texas Tech runs a QB sneak on 4th and 4 - Leach said he called the "no-play, make them jump offsides" play, but Harrell misunderstood. The funny thing is (to me, at least) that Harrell went ahead with what he thought was the call because he is used to getting calls from the sideline that are baffling. Had any other coach called the play to any other QB and the QB thought it was a QB sneak, that QB would have called timeout or at least done the "What are you saying?" sign back to the sideline.
  • Worst tackling: Big XII - Whether it was Nebraska being in position and missing the tackle or Tech defenders being way out of position and diving at the ankles of Rebels, the Big XII's defenses have thus far been unimpressive. Nebraska's failures were well-hidden in the box score by Clemson's inability to run an offense.
  • Most lopsided first half stats: UConn/Buff - UConn had 7 fumbles, 5 of them lost and 77 yards given up in penalties in the first half. Buffalo had 0 turnovers and 5 yards given up in penalties.
  • Best imitation of A&M Football: South Carolina Cocks - Quarterback Stephen Garcia showed he was smellier than Chris Smelley by throwing for 9 of 18 for 79 yards....and three interceptions. The Old Ball Coach was piiiiiiiiiisssed.
  • Biggest NC pretender: Tech - On a two-day stretch that saw Penn State, Alabama and Tech exposed, I have to give this to Tech since they flopped against the easiest competition. The worst equipment manager award also goes to Tech. Their players were slipping all day long but the Rebels were not. I woke up in Dallas on Friday and saw that the grass was wet. I guess their equipment manager did not. Maybe he did, but since he is from Lubbock he recognized neither grass nor water.
  • Most missed player: Andre Smith, Alabama - The best O-Lineman in football did not play on Friday, and it showed. The Bama O-Line collapsed on nearly every play.
  • Most bizarre off the field story: Mark Ingram - He avoided jail for a month to watch the Sugar Bowl only to get nabbed at kickoff. Given how the game played out, he may have been better off in jail playing hide-the-noodle with his cellmate.
  • Most exciting player that returns next year: Jahvid Best, Cal - He is probabably in the top four Heisman contenders for next year, along with the guys that went the NY this year.
  • Guy who drank the most beer while watching 25 of the 30 games that have been played so far: Me - by far

(2) comments

Friday, January 02, 2009

Posted by Dr Fro 1:57 PM
If you want a little chuckle, watch this. If you just want a chubby, pause it at 2:33.

(0) comments

Random thoughts from a lawyer, an accountant, a commodities trader, an ex-Marine and a WSOP Main Event money finisher that don't know as much as they wish they did...



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Which one is the fish?

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