Posted by Dr Fro 9:07 PM

And I'm just a sucka with a lump in my throat..(Hey!)..like a chump...

I promised a post about me taking a terrible loss and having *that* look on my face. This is not that post.

On Sunday night we played our league game - 50c-50c rotating NLHE and PLO/8. I lost 500 BBs in 4 hours. That is hard to do.

Given the fact that the stakes are a lot smaller than what I am accustomed to playing, I didn't at first realize that I set a personal record for a loss. The $250 was well, well below my biggest loss, but measured in terms of a multiple of the big blind, it was definitely a record. To put it in perspective, at $2-$5 NL, that would be a loss of $2,500 - a staggering sum to lose. That puts it into perspective! (Yes, for the math to work perfectly, the small blind in our league game would need to have been 20c, but that's nitpicky).

How did it happen? A combination of bad cards, bad beats and bad decisions were to blame, but this fact covers about $160 of the $250 loss: I lost four times to the nut flush, holding the second nut flush. I don't typically draw to the second nut flush (sure, I love draws, but I like winning draws), but in each instance, I was calling because of some other aspect of my hand and I backdoored the flush. That sort of shit just makes you think that I pissed off the gambling gods something fierce and they all just sat up there and conspired just how to really f*** me over real good and hard. Throw in a loss with KK to AA as well. Oh yeah, and there was the bad beat that involved my opponent calling a bet on the flop and the turn with nothing but overs (KQ) and called a (bluffing) bet on the river with nothing but a paired King facing a paired board and three diamonds. Hey, I was telling you on this blog just three weeks ago that the brilliant call is what makes you money, so more power to my opponent for calling down my bluff. But, damn!

By my count we played 78 hands. The first thing to notice is that is unbelievably slow play to cover only 78 hands in 4 hours. The second thing I'd note is how unbelievable it is that I had so many improbable things happen in such a small sampling of hands. The last thing I'd note is that it is absolutely crazy that my worst beat (measured on a scalable basis) happened over such a small number of hands. What are the odds?

My final reflection is that if I can have that terrible of a stretch of luck (and bad decision-making) and only lose $250, I consider myself lucky. Yes, I am the luckiest man on the planet. With luck like this, I just might be broke before the end of the year.

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Posted by Johnnymac 9:55 AM
Jeff is having a game this week. Details are below. Email me if you want to play and I'll hook you up with him (the stakes are too rich for your fearless author, but all of you guys know I'm a small-timer garage poker player, anyway):

-----------------------------------------

WHEN: 6:30pm Wednesday January 30th

We had a great game on the first try last week.
Roger
dominated with his professional play.
please reply ASAP.

Now that we had the trial run, we know more.

2 rounds of Holdem 1-3blinds PL
1 round of Omaha 1-2blinds PL

Can bring it in for 5 times the big blind or the pot
whichever is greater.

If you are ahead and everyone in action is ALL-IN,
you can get insurance as long as pot is at least
$300.

$400 buy-in, re-buys from $200 to half of the
largest
stack (1000max) in increments of 200. Table stakes.
No splitting pots without showing cards (ie all-in)

No rake! No dealer tips! Chip in $15 for food and
drinks.

It's at Jay's house again. Game STARTS at 6:30pm,
ENDS 11pm...degenerates feel free to play longer
AFTER
we cash everyone else out.

If you're in, bring at least a little cash, and
checks
are fine. NO IOUs to the game.

SEE you WED,


Jeff

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Posted by Junelli 6:21 PM
Talk about a director and an actor REALLY doing their homework. This guy really nailed it!




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Posted by Dr Fro 2:51 PM

There are so many things I love about Rounders. One of them is that look on Mike's face when he loses his bankroll. The directors and Matt Damon did their homework, because he nailed that face. I've sat speechless with that face before. Too many times to tell, really. But I need to share the story about one time that I had that look on my face. I'll get that up here next week. Until then, enjoy this:

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Posted by Johnnymac 5:59 PM
In 1991, we were damn good. I had actually forgotten how good we were that year. 409 to 175? Are you kidding me? 4 shutouts in 5 games outscoring the opponents 201 to 16 in that stretch? Good lord. It's funny how now looking back 16 years later that it was something so obviously special and unusual and the sad thing is that back then we just all took it for granted.

You appreciate things more when you get older. Funny that.

(A few of you probably are good friends with our quarterback to this day. Please tell him hello for me if you see him...)

But all of that's not the point of this post. The point of this post is that if you look the year before, 1990, something's missing from the schedule: THE SCRIMMAGE. Remember how Boobie Miles hurt his knee in that scrimmage and the whole focus of that outstanding book and atrocious movie (why make those idiots into sympathetic heroes?) was how he was never the same. Well, the same thing happened to me, too.

In 1990 (the year before the special season) we started the season with a scrimmage in this stadium against these guys. The kid in front of me was rather puny and easily pushed around, and being a BMOC high school football player myself, I started talking all kinds of trash to him and continued to do so throughout the entire scrimmage. He was mad. He was embarrassed. He was getting yelled at by his coaches. I was loving it.

And then that QB I mention above threw an interception and I dutifully ran over to join in on the tackle, except right before I got there Mr Puny McDipshit hit me in the back. My right leg stayed planted but the rest of me fell over sideways and I felt and heard what seemed like bubble wrap getting ripped apart inside of me knee. It was a dirty-ass hit. His coaches yelled at him, our coaches yelled at their coaches and I just lay on the ground wondering what happened. After a little while I made it back to the bench where the doctor played around with my knee while I sat there crying because I figured my season was ruined and I was out of the season opener at (now DKR) Memorial Stadium in Austin two weeks later. But the doctor said it felt stable and that he thought it was just a minor sprain, that maybe my kneecap moved around a little bit, but that I would eventually be fine. And two weeks later I was on the field in Austin as we won our first game of the year.

My knee was never the same and I lost a step after that and I'm pretty sure it cost me a real football scholarship (funny how the letters and calls just stop when something like that happens). I've been able to function pretty darn good, but I've always had a bum knee ever since that night in Brownwood.

For the most part it's just been mild pain swelling all this time, but lately it's just gotten worse over the past couple of years until finally, this past October, I tried to play in the company softball tournament and couldn't walk the next day, so I finally decided to go see the doctor again. My GP recommended this guy and his initial diagnosis was, "Yeah, that's a little crunchy and stiff in there, isn't it? I think it's just arthritis from the old injury, but lets do an MRI to be sure."

Me: "Is it possibly an ACL injury from long ago? It feels unstable sometimes and hurts to cut and jump."

"No. Your knee feels stable. There's no way you have a 15 year old ACL injury. You wouldn't be able to walk."

Me: "umm... OK."

So I had to put off the MRI until after January 1st for insurance reasons, but I finally went and did it last week and, after the long windup, the point here is that I went to see the doctor this morning to get the results of the MRI:

"John, are you aware just how serious your knee is injured? It looks from the MRI that you have a torn ACL, and from the looks of all the collateral damage and arthritis in there, it appears to be a really old injury. You must have done this back in High School, if I had to guess. You need to get this repaired right away before it gets any more worse!"

"Really? I had no idea!"

So we're trying to find a day right now that works, schedule wise. I'll be off my feet for 5 days, on crutches for about 10 days after that, and rehabbing for at least 6-8 months. I am looking forward to getting it fixed, finally, but the road ahead is kind of daunting to say the least.

As always, more details to come...


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Posted by Johnnymac 9:23 AM
Bueller?


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Posted by Dr Fro 9:34 PM

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Posted by Junelli 2:40 AM





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Posted by Dr Fro 10:07 PM

I wonder if any Dallas Cowboy fans are making the argument tonight that a single-elimination playoff is the best way to crown a champion? You beat the Giants 2 of 3 times, but they are still in the playoffs, and you are not. To boot, they play Green Bay, another team a) you had a better season than and b) you beat.

Anybody (outside of NY) think this is a good way to crown a champion?

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Posted by Dr Fro 3:34 PM

Elise loved this one. As an REM fan for the past 21 years, it was a rare moment that I was entertained watching one of her shows.

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Posted by Dr Fro 2:50 PM
This is my 2007 gambling net income.

Only an accountant could be as anal as I am at tracking gambling. Even the $1 "misc" is actually a large number of small stuff (e.g., golf, lottery tickets, etc.)



The lessons I should draw from above are quite obvious. Stick with what you're good at and stay away from craps.


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Posted by Junelli 11:50 PM
I'm a Dad.

Layne Elizabeth Junell was born today at 4pm. She is tiny and only weighed 4 lbs 8 ozs (17.5" long). Everyone is doing well.


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Posted by Dr Fro 8:34 PM

College Football Season 2007

I suppose today is the best day to de-brief on the most recent college football season.

Let's start with my pre-season predictions, shall we?

I narrowed my NC prediction down to USC, WVU and LSU. Not bad, considering they were 1, 3 and 6 to end the season. I was also right to say that LSU would not get through the SEC unscathed. What I could not have forseen was how everyone else would lose, thus allowing an LSU team with (at least) a loss in the NC game. I do wonder if we will see again in our lifetime a 2-loss national champion.

My Steve Slaton Heisman pick was off the mark.

My ballsy prediction that Florida would beat LSU twice...didn't exactly happen. But the underlying premise that Florida is better than people thought was true. Speaking of Florida, it was pretty ballsy at the time to predict that Tebow would go to NYC, but go there he did. Boy did he. (SI didn't even have him on the pre-season Heisman Watch, which included the top 8 candidates.)

I overshot on the Horns, but nailed it on the head of the nail in Fran's coffin.

So what to make of this season? Well the playoff supporters will use it as support to clamor for a playoff, but then again, if a fly sneezed, they would clamor for a playoff, too. I am still plenty pleased with the fact that college football distinguishes itself as being the only US team sport that doesn't feel compelled to crown a clear-cut champion when no team makes a clear-cut case as deserving that crown. Manufacturing the situation through a playoff doesn't satisfy me - at all.

Oregon and WVU are the biggest what-ifs. Had Dixon and White not gotten hurt, these teams may have gone undefeated. At a minimum, they might have played in the NC game with one loss. What if...

Pete Carrol continued to prove that he is human, losing to Stanford. Odds are that no sportswriter will admit that Carrol or Bob Stoops is human in our lifetime - they are both invincible.

Cal and South Florida were the biggest pretenders, rising to #2 only to completely tank down the stretch.

Speaking of Cal, do you remember in 2004 when they cried and peed in their pants and complained to their mommy that they were left out of the Rose Bowl? They claimed conspiracy even though UT DROPPED in the human polls. I guess the computers conspired. Cal proved to the world that they belonged in a BCS game by getting their ass handed to them by Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl. Fast forward to 2007 - Missouri could have cried to their mommy, too. But they didn't. Instead, they kicked Arkansas in the nuts. Well done, Missouri. Not only did you prove that you probably were better than some BCS teams, you managed to embarrass the Hogs.

Speaking of the Rose Bowl, the Rose Bowl Committee is the most stubborn lot of aholes in sports. They mess up everything. They got their due this year by taking Illinois to preserve all that is holy and whatever only to put on one of the biggest snoozers of a bowl game. Glad we preserved that Big 10 tie-in.

The most exciting games were Fla-Mich and Tech-UVA. Unfortunately, they were ending simultaneously, so it was hard to fully enjoy either.

Kansas returns many starters and Fatty McFatpants in 2008. Thus, they should win a billion games next year. Make that a billion minus 2. Kansas doesn't get avoid UT and OU again in 2008, and I am looking forward to KU losing to both.

I was shocked to see Jamaal Charles go pro. My guess: there is more to this story. I just don't think his NFL stock is high enough to justify it...maybe Jamaal is high enough to justify it... Seriously, dude has gotta owe a brother some dough or he knocked up a ho, because I just don't think it makes sense otherwise to go pro, Yo.

Jamaal is one of the 3 fastest men in college football: JC, DeMarco Murray and Noel Devine. We will see 2/3 of this trio next year. These kids are light years faster (yes, I know that a light year is a measure of distance, not of speed or time) than any one else, LSU's Holliday included.

Early prediction for next year: UT immediately forgets what the secret ingredient was to fire them up for ASU and comes out flat in its first few games.

While I am rambling, I want to say that I thought the commentators for FOX were great, but the "studio" guys (e.g., Jimmy J, Urban Meyer, Erkyl from Family Matters and Captain Kangaroo) sucked. It was just nice to hear a perspective during the game from people other than the same shills that are always on ESPN/ABC.

Did the Big XII suck? No. Kansas, Missouri, UT, Tech and Oklahoma State looked good in their bowl games. Heck, KU knocked off the Big East champ and the appr. fourth best Big XII team, UT, beat the Pac-10 co-champ (er, runner up). So, was the Pac-10 overated? Yes. As it is every year, it is a one trick pony with USC dominating and the league dropping off after that. And I know you hate to hear it, but the SEC proved pretty convincingly once again that it is the best conference in America. Hey, I hate rednecks just as much as the next guy, but you have to be blind to not see how they are the best football conference over the last few years.

Just one more thing: it is 9:09pm in Dallas, TX, and OU still sucks.

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Posted by Dr Fro 8:28 PM

I got the results from my MRI. I am having surgery, probably March 3 (although the dumb chick in charge of scheduling it can't confirm this date yet...maybe because she is dumb). What I have is a Bankart lesion. In layman's terms, the ligaments are torn off the bone and need to be sewed back onto the bone. I am pretty sure this is what Johnnymac had a decade+ ago. If you are interested, you can read all about it.

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Posted by Dr Fro 8:19 PM

Below is a summary of my recent college football pool success. There are still a couple unknown gratuities, but other than that, this is final:

Poindexter Pool
Format = Pick all Top 25 games against the spread.
Entry Fee = $31
Entries = 166
Weekly winnings = $300 (three separate first place finishes at $100 a pop)
Season winnings = $523 (won third place out of 166 for cumulative score)
Minus gratuity = $23
Minus cut to a friend that provided a hedge $100
Total Profit = $669


Higdon Pool
Format = Pick 11 preselected games straight up
Entry Fee = $50
Entries = 129
Weekly winnings = $200 (two separate second place finishes at $100 a pop)
Season winnings = $800 (won first place out of 129 for cumulative score)
Minus gratuity = $
Minus cut to a friend that provided a hedge $150
Total Profit = $800

Poolmeister Pool
Format = Pick 10 preselected games against the spread.
Entry Fee = $50
Entries = 25
Weekly winnings = $25 (one first place finishes at $25 a pop)
Season winnings = $100 (won third place out of 25 for cumulative score)
Plus a cut from a friend to whom I provided a hedge $30
Total Profit = $105

Watt Pool
Format = Each player has 20,000 in Monopoly Money. You bet on games just like you are betting with a bookie.
Entry Fee = $100
Entries = 20
Weekly winnings = n/a
Season winnings = $1,600 (won first place out of 20 for cumulative score - turned 20,000 into 118,450)
Minus cut to a friend that provided a hedge $200
Total Profit = $1,300

So for the 4 season-long pools, I was 4 for 4 in the money. Then I did 4 pools that were only for the bowls. I approached these largely as a hedge against my season-long pools and, not surprisingly, I went 0-4, losing $65 in entry fees

So that makes:
+ $669
+ $105
+ $800
+ $1,300
- $65
= $2,809

Not bad.

Three mentions of "hedges" above just meant that I traded x% of myself for x% in somebody else. One hedge (Watt pool) was almost the same thing, but slightly complicated by the fact that I traded a position in one pool with another guy's position in another pool. The reference to using the other 4 pools as headges against my 4 main pools is even more complex. They weren't complete hedges. For instance, in one main pool, I had all favorites straight up, but in another I had all dogs plus the points. Thus, it was still theoretically possible to win all games in both of those pools. Not a "perfect" hedge..quite a bit better, really. Anyway, I say all this because I have the long-established position about not hedging yourself in certain situations, a topic that deserves its own post someday.

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Posted by Johnnymac 4:04 PM
This picture cannot be real:



via Gizmodo


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Posted by Johnnymac 8:10 AM
Here is a bleg for all of our regular readers in Houston.

I really need a new job. Not that what I have right now is terrible and not that I am in imminent danger of getting fired or canned, but I've been pretty dissatisfied here lately and just found out this week that I've been passed over once again for a promotion and I've just about had enough of this office politics thing - and that's what it is, politics.

Anyway, if anyone who reads this thing knows me (or doesn't know me) and has any leads on any opportunities out there for someone with 3 years of public accounting experience and 7 years of experience trading power and gas and environmental products, please help a brother out and send me an email (or leave a comment).

My dream job would be to find something with an international flair that would allow me to get back into emissions trading or with a climate change focus at a large integrated energy company or bank, but really right now I just need a fresh start somewhere else.

All help is appreciated.


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Posted by Dr Fro 8:45 PM
Geaux Phreaux

Notes on tonight's game:

No matter who wins in tonight's football game, we will have our first repeat BCS Champion.

But if LSU wins, there will not be any coach with 2 BCS championships.

Notre Dame has a longer current winning streak than either team in tonight's game.

If LSU covers, I win 1st place in my biggest pool ($1,600). Add that to other pool winnings, minus some side bets to hedge my position, I will net about $3,000 in college football pools, going 4 for 4 placing in the money of all 4 of my season-long pools. I need to do a complete calculation this weekend so I can close the books on 2007.


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Posted by Dr Fro 11:46 AM

I ate dinner with Junell at Texadelphia a month ago, and two noteworthy things happened. The first one was that, in addition to a cheesesteak, he ate two bowls of queso - on his own. The second one was more surprising and more noteworthy - he had something interesting to say.

What he said was this:

"I've played a lot of poker, and it seems that most people I play with (sic) have most of the same skill sets. However, the thing that really separates the great ones - the ones that seem to consistently win - is the ability to make a really hard call on the end."

I have said this on this blog before: after you throw away your gambling ways and play a disciplined, EV-based approach, the next stage in the evolution of a poker player is mastering these three skills:

1- Making a tough lay down
2- Making a great bluff
3- Making a great call

Of the three, the third is the toughest skill. If it isn't the toughest, it sure seems to be (chronologically) the last skill mastered by a poker player. But it shouldn't be. Here is why.

Let's assume a pot of $100 and two players heads-up, each with $100. In all situations, imagine an all-in bet of $100 forcing the opponent to choose between calling $100 or folding.

1-Making a tough lay down: If you lay down, you are giving up appr. $50 in pot equity. That is pretty cheap. Also, since was are risk averse, we tend to give up on break-even or small +EV situations to protect our stack. This is what we do. It is easy to do. Plus, we get to pat ourselves on the back for being "disciplined". Oh yeah, and nobody will ridicule us for making a "stupid decision" since they will never see our cards. So, this decision is easy to make since there is not much apparent downside. If your sarcasm meeting needs tuning, I am being quite tongue in cheek about how brilliant this move is. More on this in a second.

2-Making a great bluff: You risk $100 hoping to win $100. You need to be right 1/2 the time. If you choose your spots wisely, you should be right more often than half the time. Easy play (when the right opportunity arises). Plus, there are all sorts of side benefits of advertising even if you do get caught with your hand in the cookie jar.

3-Making a great call: You risk $100 hoping to win $200. You need to be right 1/3 the time. If you choose your spots wisely, you should be right more often than one-third of the time.

Now let's contrast #2 and #3. All else equal, #3 should be easier to do since you have to be right way less often. Only in baseball can you make money being successful 34% of the time (i.e., batting .340). So, doesn't it seem that people should be much more willing to make a great call instead of a great bluff? You would think. Instead, they resign themselves to mucking their (otherwise winning?) hand and saying "good bet." Doesn't that make them feel good about their bad decision to fold? Good bet! Is it: You made me fold a better hand than yours - good bet! ? Or is it: You had a better hand than I did and you managed to make no more money out of it - good bet! ? Neither one makes any sense at all. Next time I hear "Good bet!" I am going to shout, "You suck!"

OK, now let's contrast #1 and #3. Obviously, these decisions are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Thus, any time #3 is a good decision, then #1 is necessarily not. End of discussion.

I am not saying you should call every bet to you. What I am saying is that unless this is a key part of your game, you will not win money consistently.

Try it out. I bet you will be happy you did, and trust me, this is a good bet.

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Posted by Junelli 2:37 PM
Proof that sports betting takes no skill:

Wilson and I entered McAndrew's $100 NCAA bowl pool wherein we were to pick all 32 games against the spread and weight each game. For the weighting, we had 1 ten point game, 1 five point game, 10 three point games, 10 two point games, and 10 one point games.

Wilson and I got together the night before the picks were due, so we could talk about our plan. After drinking a lot of beers, and spending much time on this wonderful wonderful website called "Southern Fried Football," we had what Tom Cruise would call a "moment of clarity": we don't know shit.

Neither one of us bets on games, or watches enough football to have expertise on any teams except the Longhorns and the Rice Owls.

So....in grand tradition of Southern Fried Football, we decided to choose our picks based primarily on the looks of the girls at the schools. In almost every circumstance, the schools that had better looking girls were picked, with extra weight being given to the games that had the greatest disparity of hot chicks to ugly chicks.

For instance when Cincinnati played Southern Miss, we picked Southern Miss. And that was a 2 point game. UCLA was picked over BYU. That was a 5 point game, because....c'mon you know why. Our 10 point game was Georgia over Hawaii. Now I'm sure Hawaii has some good looking girls, but I doubt very many. And Georgia is...well...Georgia.









With 3 games to go, Wilson and I are in 3rd place out of 30 guys.

So, to all you "sports gurus"......Suck it. :)


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Posted by Dr Fro 11:08 AM

Did you see the Fiesta Bowl last night?

Big Game Bob lost. Can you believe it? Big Game Bob wins every game, and he really always wins big games. That is why he is Big Game Bob. Ignore the man behind the curtain claiming BGB is 0-4 in BCS games since winning the National Championship (3 of which were blowOUts). Focus on the fact that Mack Brown sucks and can't win anything, especially the big game. Ignore that Mack is 4-0 in his last 4 bowl games, including 2-0 in the BCS and 1-0 in NC games. Is it possible that we form impressions early and then become inflexible in changing those impressions even when faced with quantitative evidence to the contrary? Methinks yes. This happens in poker, too. For a while on Party Poker, I was getting killed in the $1-$2 game, but I was convinced that I was a winning player. After all, I won for my first year. When the evidence piled up, I (thankfully) changed my impression of myself.

Can you believe that IAG was mentioned twice in the game last night? First, when Berry and Dingle sat next to each other, the announcer talked about how the bloggers would be all over it. Surely this was a reference to JG's post on the subject. Second, they mentioned that you could find Noel Devine's high school highlights on the internet. Though not mentioned by name, I know they were referring to me and my "sick" Noel Devine post that refenced the same highlight reels.

I have a long post that I owe about my recent poker and football pool successes. In short, I won $160 at KL's house, a week later I won $260 at my house, a week later, I won $230 at JG's house. Also, I am tearing up my pools. Hard to say what I will win until the games are complete, but at this rate, it will should be a minimum (gross) of $1,600. Could be more.

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