Posted by Johnnymac 3:17 PM



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Posted by Dr Fro 11:47 AM

I found a pretty good write up of the Scotty Nguyen issue. It has links to his non-apology and to another article on the topic.

What seems to always get mentioned but is lost in the long list of grievances is the collusion attempt. That isn't just breaking the rules it is cheating (i.e., breaking the rules to your advantage). He should be shot for that.

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Posted by Junelli 9:26 PM
This is who beats you online...




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Posted by Junelli 9:22 PM
Q: How do you get a professional poker player off your front porch?

A: Pay him for the pizza.


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Posted by Dr Fro 8:51 AM
Preseason rankings are out.

A&M claims a moral victory - they didn't lose, they just ran out of time. That, and they won at halftime, too. And anyway, it is all hogwash because UT controls the media.

How bout them Red Raiders?

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Posted by Dr Fro 5:40 PM

There has been discussion on more than one blog about Scotty Nguyen's behavior in the $50k HORSE event that was televised on ESPN two days ago. I watched it on Tivo last night and my jaw was on the floor. Just a sampling of my thoughts:

• Scotty was cussing like a sailor, and there was no action taken to address it
• Scotty was drunk. He was obviously drunk. Htf do you get drunk with a $2m prize pool on the line?
• Wtf was Layne Flack doing coming up to the table?
• Michael DeMichelle behaved perfectly fine. Norman Chad said he was also guilty, but Scotty was worse. I disagree. Michael's responses were measured. I have no problem with him bowing to his friends in the audience, and I certainly have no problem with his jabs at Scotty after Scotty tried to humiliate him on TV.
• Erik Lindgren made some interesting comments. He told Scottty that he was never part of the "Scotty Train" or something like that. He then shook Michael's hand, ignored Scotty and told the audience that he wanted the "kid" to win. Wow.
• Is it just me or did Scotty BLATANTLy try to collude with Erik. Watch the hand that he folded to Erik and listen to the three comments he made about it. WTF?

If you haven't seen the episode, you should. Scotty is a scumbag. I bet that a lot of poker players are scumbags, even the ones that come off as good guys on T.V., but I bet Erik Lindgren is a good guy. He certainly handled himself well in the HORSE event.

If I am EVER on ESPN, I will say nothing. Nada. Zip. Zilch. Not only would I avoid talking smack, I wouldn't even say nice things that could be edited down to come across as trashtalking. ESPN very much tries to paint a (one dimensional) picture of each player. I will not give then anything to work with. Scotty sure did.

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Posted by Dr Fro 4:15 PM
If you have been watching the Olympics in the U.S., you have seen this commercial. If you were born after 1975, you don't get it. If you were born before '75, you must think it is brilliant.




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Posted by Dr Fro 2:47 PM

As you can see, CMHORN think that there is nothing better than the KKK.

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Posted by Dr Fro 2:08 PM

Eight people registered for the tournament. Two thought it started at 1pm and joined us an hour late (Junell and Morris). Todddawg tried to register just after it started (he also thought it started at 1.

For some bizzarre reason, we started out on 2 tables. Budakleck and I had Junell and Beau at our table. Beau was a bit late, so we stole his blinds for a while and stole Junell's for a long while. In the first 15 minutes, I flopped a set of 7s twice and got top pair (7s) with K7 and A7. Once I nearly felted Beau when my boat beat his flush. We soon combined to one table.

By 12:30, I had 3,200 in chips and was the chip leader by a good margin. Around that time, Cameron bet his set into Beau's flush.

By 12:45, I had 3,500. My QQ lost to Kyle's 99 when he made quads. I managed to only lose 700. At 12:47, I busted ksig when my 44 outflopped his 55. Justice for the hand against Kyle!

By 12:53, another man was down - Budakleck.

At 12:58, Junell joined us, played three hands before the break and doubled up to 760.

Other chip stacks were:

Me 4508

KTL 2802

CM 1460

Beau 2105

Morris 365

Morris joined us shortly after the break, played three hands and got busted holding his weiner and AKo.

At 1:16, I KO'd Beau with my KK. We got to the bubble. That lasted 8 minutes (which is longer than Megan says Cameron usually lasts) when Cameron busted out.

Kyle killed me again when I flopped top two pair (9T) only to see the river pair the board, giving him (holding JJ) jacks up. Shortly thereafter, KTL had A8 agains Junell's Jx. Flop came 8. Turn came J. River came 8. The river doubled up Kyle again.

Although he was the chip leader for most of the short-handed action, Junell ended up in third place. Kyle and I played for a while, most of the time with me being ahead, but his actual straight beat my pretend straight.

Results are below. I had fun, let's do this again.

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Posted by Junelli 3:12 PM



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Posted by Johnnymac 9:33 AM
LOL


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Posted by Johnnymac 9:30 AM


(I think it's a parody and if so it's spot on)


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Posted by Johnnymac 9:22 AM
I was pretty sure that these were photoshopped the first time I saw them:




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Posted by Dr Fro 8:46 PM

Junell, Budakleck and somebody I don't (think I) know have signed up for the tournament to get us to 7 players. GlazeDog said he wants to sign up, but is experiencing user error while trying. Maybe Junell can give him some tech support.

We played on Sunday in Houston. Planck gave me a ride home. We had the same conversation I recently had with Junell, with one addition. It went something like this:

There is a chronology of steps a poker player goes through, something like:

Step 1: Learn to only play good hands pre-flop. Bet good hands, fold bad hands

Step 2: Get tricky post-flop. Learn to trap and to bluff.

Step 3: Learn to make the great laydown. When you limit your lossess on your losing hands, you can make much more money that by just maximizing your gains on your winning hands.

Step 4: Now that you can outplay an opponent post-flop, you can reduce your starting hand requirements (given good position or passive pre-flop action). After all, you no longer need the best hand to win the hand AND you can limit your losses when your flat beat.

Step 5: Learn to make the great call. This was where Junell and I focused our conversation. Once you can read opponents well and call them and win a pot with a mediocre holding, you are in serious control of the game.

Step 6: You might say this is just an extension of Step 4, but at some point, hopefully, you can read a situation and know exactly what your opponent has. Poker is a game of information. If I know, I mean so totally KNOW that you have AA and I have QQ, I just might call. I am a 4:1 underdog to have the best hand on the river. I have a much better chance than that to win the hand. (E.g., if the flop comes JJ4, that pot is mine.) Plus, I stand to win more when I win and lose less when I flop bad (e.g., T82.) I guess this is like step 4, but it is not the general relaxation of hand requirements, it is an intentional decision in a situation where you have read your opponents hand with great (perceived) precision. It is the sort of situation that might present itself once every hour or two.

Junell/Planck, let me know if I left something out.

I think the future steps (none of which I have taken) involve:

- Disguising your hand from even expert players

- Designing an strategy to a hand that considers all streets (e.g., raise the flop to get a free card on the turn and also know what you will do on the river if you miss)

- Designing an approach to a game that considers all hands (e.g., pay for advertising)

David called with QQ to Jeff's AA on Sunday night. If one accepts that it was obvious that Jeff had AA, then you could say David hasn't gotten to step 3 (couldn't make the laydown). Alternatively, you could say that he has progressed to step 6 (calling while behind due to certainty around what his opponent had).

I don't mean to imply that all poker players progress along the same 2-dimensional trajectory. For instance, Planck was the best player at the table. However (and I am certain of this), while Jeff would fare better against pros than Beau and I, I know that Beau and I are better at fleecing really bad players. There were three players at the table that were clearly stuck at step 1. Beau and I took most of their money and Planck was about even. After those three players (almost totally) busted out and left, Planck began to win more than Beau and I did. (Beau's stack stayed flat, mine shrank). Beau and I spend more time playing with bad players (is it a coincidence that we are both friends with Baird?) than Planck. He spends more with good players (I so rarely play with a table full of big-time competition). So, our experiences explain our niches.

Another funny on Sunday night was when Dude lost like $25 and got out of his chair and ran is hands through his hair like Phil Hellmuth. He was disgusted by the outcome of the hand. I'd hate to see Dude's reaction if he lost $1,000 in a pot holding AA versus K5 (not that I know any thing about that...) Those reactions are classic. Really, the only one better is when a player calls time on himself. I think that is my all time favorite.

Speaking of idiots, Beau brought up the fact that the first dude eliminated from the first episode of WSOP mis-read his hand (how could you forget with ESPN shoving a camera in his face for the next several hours?) Anyway, dude thought he was calling with a King high flush. Funny thing is that his opponent had an Ace high flush. I hope I am never on TV making a stupid call with a hand I didn't have, only to stick around and complain about it all night only to actually be too stupid to realize that I would have lost any way.

Back to Sunday. Glazy McGlazepants called to a paired board with a straight. He said, "I thought you had a full house when I called." Jeff giggled and showed his quads. Ouch.

Back to Dude. Dude, here is my advice, top pair, King kicker isn't a good hand; it is a punchline on 2+2.

Back to me. I am going to bed. Later.

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Posted by Dr Fro 9:27 PM
We have 4 players registered for the tournament thus far:
- C Moates
- Beau
- Fro
- KTL

Two Kappa Sigs, one Aggie and a man who couldn't find his head even if he Google-mapped his ass.

C'mon guys, what are you waiting for?

There is no cap on participants in the tournament, so I will open it up to the public now:

The password is: frantastic


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Posted by Dr Fro 9:21 PM

The WSOP started on ESPN. The first duet of episodes reminded me of one thing: Why do people make such asses of themselves on TV? The second duet was more refreshing; the players took their lumps with dignity.

The second notable thing about this weeks episodes is that it confirms a trend that ESPN is not going to gloss over controversy (conventional wisdom is that they would paint poker to be a less dirty industry than it is because when the integrity of the game is at stake, viewers will be less interested). Last year, they were transparent about the chip discrepancy caused by an errant coloring up. This year, they pointed out that Justin Bonomo (ZeeJustin) was most famous for "cheating" online. To be fair to Justin, I put his sin in quotes; it deserves a post of its own to analyze whether what he did was, in fact, cheating. Further, I said "most famous" because he was famous online for his success before he was famous for his scandal.

Bravo, ESPN, for telling it like it is.

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Posted by Dr Fro 9:03 PM

It is split 2-2 on the hand I was talking about. I really thought it would be unanimous. With a board of 888, John and Junell call, but Adam and I fold.

In real life, I wasn't the person with 33. I was the guy with nothing (more precisely, I had KQ). I put my opponent on a low pair, probably something like 33. I read him like a book. I figured my all-in raise would make 33 fold. I guess I play with Adam more often than I play with John or Junell because I was shocked when he called.

So, to analyze my play, you have to go all the way back to the basics -to the Theory of Poker. That is, if you knew what your opponent had, would you play it differently? I basically knew what he had. Yet, even when equipped with such knowledge, I evidently still can't make a good decision.

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Posted by Johnnymac 10:02 AM
I was at the Astros game last night with a friend from church who grew up in Poughkeepsie and is a serious all his life type Mets fan. He was wearing his jersey and his hat and came with a clean baseball so he could stand next to the wall for 15 minutes hoping David Wright would walk over and sign an autograph. Dude was stoked and for 7 innings he had reason to be.

Too bad for him that it had to be the 2nd most exciting finish to an Astros game that I've ever witnessed in person.


(here's #1, if you're interested)


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Posted by Dr Fro 9:55 AM

We are having the first ever It Ain't Gambling online tournament On August 17 at noon. Get a pokerstars account, add $22 or have a friend transfer $22, go to pokerstars / tournament / private, register and enter the password (email me and I will provide.) The name of the tournament is "IAG" (click on pic below to enlarge).

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Posted by Johnnymac 9:21 PM
Guido Beach


(watch the ending)


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Posted by Dr Fro 2:23 PM

College Football Preview and Predictions

Every year around this time, I write my college football predictions. Given my remarkable performance in 3 of 4 pools last year, I will declare myself an expert in all things college football (including coeds, tailgaiting, beer, trashtalking and bourbon) - particularly handicapping.

I'll start with the Big 12 and then cover the other conferences.

Texas and Tech

From 1999 to present, we have beaten Tech by the following scores in our 8 victories:

1999 58-7
2000 29-17
2001 42-7
2002 lost
2003 43-40
2004 51-21
2005 52-17
2006 35-31
2007 59-43

We have outscored them by 187 points in those 8 victories for an average margin of victory of over 23 points. They beat us once, in 2002, by 4 points.

In the past seven seasons, our worst season is 10 wins. Tech's best season in that same stretch is 9 wins. So, put our worst team up against their best team, and we still come out ahead. (Plus, UT has had a tougher non-conference schedule and a tougher post-season schedule.) That might be approximately what will happen this year. This is the worst UT team in a while - a preason 10ish ranking in some polls, but not a top-five ranking. We also have a trickier schedule this year. Tech returns some key people. I don't see how their offense can improve, as they already score a billion points per game. I don't believe their defense will learn over night how to keep us from scoring 59 points.

So, if you take a big step back, you would conclude that Tech is - AT BEST - only as good or perhaps marginally better than UT. Well, this guy has them playing for a national championship. Methinks he has been inhaling Ricky Williams' secondhand smoke!

Even Dave Campbell's Texas Football, who was so excited about Tech that they put their coach and two stars on the cover offers some evidence as to where Tech really fits into the B12 championship picture: out of 19 sportswriters polled, only one had Tech winning the B12 South. By comparison, 6 had Texas. Let's face it, sports media love to make bold predicitions, particularly on cover and in headlines. They are not handicappers that put their money where their mouth is. Their job is to sell their medium, and you sell more by being bold than by not.

Let's also never forget Tech's amazing ability to dramatically win one week against a quality opponent, only to drop one to a stinker of a team the next week. Tech sometimes does this twice in the same season.

In summary, Tech should be, at best, a slight favorite to beat UT in Lubbock. I'd take Tech at even money in the heads-up game. But, I would still bet on UT to finish ahead of Tech in the conference and in the final AP rankings. Tech just doesn't play their A game week in and week out. Their gimmicky offense is a gambling offense, and gambling offenses sometimes gamble and lose.

So, some techsters are walking around with their chests out lately. I can't wait until the season is played out and Tech ends up around third place in the Big Twelve South.

One point about Texas unrelated to the UT-TTU comparison...Texas returns only 10 starters. That is not good. Well, usually it isn't good. For instance, losing Jermichael Finley will hurt. But lost in that stat is this: three of the starters lost (our LBs) sucked. Their replacements do not suck. So, in 13 positions, we will be as good or better than last year. Thirteen ain't great, but it is better than 10.

Missou

There is plenty of talk of Missou, too. Let's be clear about how good Missou was last year - that is, not as good as people think. The Big 12 North still sucks, and Missou and KU benefitted from that. But in the end, OU proved twice last season that they are the class of the B12 and that Missou is clearly inferior.

Kansas

Kansas lost to Missouri and avoided playing OU (who would have killed them). That makes Kansas no better than the third team in the league last year. They also avoided UT, which may well have been better than them, too. So Kansas, in their best season since Prohibition, was the 3rd or 4th best team in our conference. Give them a cookie. The ball won't bounce their way in every game this year. Plus, as Fatty McFatpants made clear in 2004, the refs are quite intent to throw the game in UT's favor because we will make the conference more money in a BCS game than Kansas will. That, and aliens exist. And the Holocaust didn't happen.

They lose to South Florida in week 2, and the worlds goes back to pretending that Kansas doesn't exist. (Seriously, how can you root for a state that has no trees?)

Texas Agricultural and Mechanical School

A&M made a smart move by hiring Mike Sherman. Head coaches don't make a sorry team an elite team overnight. Even Big Game Bob lost to Texas in miserable fashion his first year before winning an NC in his second year. OU was much better off talent-wise in 2000 than A&M is in 2008. I will make no predictions about how Coach Sherman will do 2009 and further, but I expect him to do no better than "show signs of progress".

I am most interested in the QB situation. A new head coach has a bit of incentive to bench the old guy in favor of the young guy. You get a free pass in your first year, so if the young guy struggles, there is little downside. But now your young guy gets a lot more experience - experience that will pay dividends in years when your W-L record will be scrutinized.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma has owned the Big 12 this decade. They won it last year, and they will be better this year than last. They beat UT last year, and the gap in talent has widened since then. Big Game Bob goes the Big 12 Championship when they beat Texas, and they rarely lose a Big 12 Championship game (and when they do, they get into the NC game anyway). They are an easy pick to win the conference and go to a BCS game. Big Game Bob has managed to lose a big game from time to time (well, all the time lately). So do they drop UT? Tech? CCG? BCS game? I dunno, but they drop something, and that keeps them from winning a national championship.

The Big 10 (aka the little 11)

From 1971 to today - 37 years of football - the Big 10 has produced 2 national champions:

1997 Michigan - this was a split poll with Nebraska. We don't know if UM would have beat NU had they played.

2002 OSU - it took a bad call in OT for this to go in OSU's favor.

That is pathetic.

Oh, Dr. Fro, the conference is just so tough that we knock each other out of contention...

B.S. The Big 10 has had plenty of teams in the NC game that fell flat on their face against OOC competition. In summary, the Big 10 is weak and it shows. What makes this all the funnier is that the Big 10 has a built-in advantage to getting into the NC game: no conference championship game. Yet, they keep failing to win the crystal football.

I don't expect the Big 10 to stop sucking any more than I expect the media to still act as if the Big 10 is relevant or than I expect Junell to become Jenny Craig's spokesperson. I have already wasted 2 minutes of my life by discussing the Big 10 this much.

The SEC

The SEC is the polar opposite of the Big 10. This has been highlighted in the past two years' BCS Championship games. It's been a while since an SEC team failed to win an NC game. They are 4-0 since the BCS was created (Tennessee, Florida, LSU x 2). Florida won it all in 1996, but lost to Nebraska in 1995. Alabama won in 1992. So, as far back as this guy can remember, the SEC is 6-1 in the big game.

I always expect more of the same. Whoever comes out of this conference championship game should be an NC contender. Predicting who that might be is tough. The coaches poll has Georgia, Florida and LSU in the top 6 and Auburn at 11. I bet one or two plays will decide the fate of this league.

I say history repeats itself this year, and a blocked field goal determines the destiny of the SEC champion, and that whoever wins the SEC wins the whole enchilada.

Heisman

A common theme of my predictions is that history will repeat itself. Nowhere is that more true than with the Heisman trophy. How do you pick against Tim Tebow? I won't. He is the real McCoy.

So, let's guess the second place player. I will go with Pat White, who is neither pat nor white.

Misc

USC plays in a pansy conference (and one without a CCG). They get the honor of losing to the SEC in the national championship. WVU will be as good as last year, but without the bad breaks. As a result, they will be a contender this season. They are BCS-worthy. Notre Dame will improve (they won't get worse!), but they are a ways away from being good.

Summary predictions

Some from above, some new:

1. UT will win 10 games.
2. OU will win the conference...
3. ...and go to a BCS game
4. ...but not win the NC
5. A&M will start Jerrod Johnson at some point
6. The SEC will win the NC ...
7. ...over USC
8. Tebow gets the Heisman
9. Pat White is the runner-up
10. WVU to the BCS
11. UT finishes higher than Tech in the B12
12. UT finishes higher than Tech in the final AP
13. Coach Mangino manufactures a controversy
14. The SEC is decided by a blocked field goal attempt.
15. Junell is still gay at season's end.
16. Kansas loses to South Florida

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Posted by Dr Fro 1:54 PM
I learned something on a hand the other day. I'd like to tell the story in three parts. Here is part 1:

Say you have 33 and see the flop with 4 other limpers. The flop comes 888. You get a couple checks before you take a stab with a bet of approximately 1/2 the pot. Guy to your left has you covered; he goes all-in for about 140% of the pot. Every folds to you. Do you call?

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Posted by Junelli 9:56 AM
I was going through some old posts, and I came across this gem from several years ago. I laughed out loud reading this.


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Posted by Junelli 8:05 AM
The Top Hat has been bought by Tommy Venus (sp?) who owns the VIP. He's completely renovated it, and expanded the room to have 10 tables. It's open 7 days a week and they run NL tournaments everyday.

Last weekend they had a $120 freeze-out. The tournament had 100 starting entries AND 108 alternates. The total prize pool was ~$25,000.

I was eliminated very early, but McAndrew kicked ass and won 10th place. Here are some pics of the new place.






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